Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) is the stock everyone wants to talk about, and the reasons are obvious: Mounjaro revenue jumped 125% to $8.66 billion last quarter, the company raised full-year revenue guidance to $82 to $85 billion, and the market cap now sits at roughly $881.8 billion. But here’s what you should actually be watching.
The Hot Trade Is Already Crowded
Lilly is a great company at a price that already reflects greatness. Shares trade near $988.87 after a 21.25% one-year run and a staggering 1,465.32% gain over ten years. The decade of compounding has happened. From here, the math gets harder.
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is the other half of the GLP-1 duopoly, and it is fighting a different battle. Q4 2025 revenue fell 7.6% year over year, with US Operations down 15%, and management guided 2026 sales and operating profit to decline 5% to 13% at constant exchange rates. CEO Mike Doustdar has acknowledged “pricing headwinds in an increasingly competitive market.” Shares are down 32.11% over the past year.
The interesting move is following where these giants are spending. Lilly’s CEO David Ricks noted four acquisitions announced in Q1 2026 alone: Orna, Centessa, Kelonia, and Ajax. Novo’s BD head conducted 200 meetings at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, fresh off the $4.7 billion Akero Therapeutics deal. Smart money tends to front-run acquirers rather than pay up at $880 billion.
Three Names On The Shopping List
Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VKTX) is the cleanest strategic fit. Lead asset VK2735 is a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist with both subcutaneous and oral formulations, and Phase 3 VANQUISH-1 was fully enrolled with more than 4,500 patients ahead of schedule. The oral Phase 2 delivered up to 12.2% body weight reduction in 13 weeks. With $706 million in cash and a market cap of just $3.69 billion, Viking is small enough to swallow and dangerous enough that Novo cannot afford to let Lilly grab it. Analysts carry an average target of $92.33 against a current $31.31.
Scholar Rock (NASDAQ:SRRK) plugs the missing piece in the entire GLP-1 thesis. Patients lose muscle alongside fat, and apitegromab is a muscle-targeted therapy with a BLA resubmission expected in 2026 and a European launch planned for the second half of 2026. Scholar Rock is already partnered with Novo Nordisk on the Catalent Indiana facility, an existing tie that makes a takeout straightforward. Market cap sits at $5.55 billion, with analysts at a $57.73 target.
Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VERV) is the most obvious deal of the three. Lilly already has the partnership through VERVE-301 on the LPA program. Lead candidate VERVE-102 is a single-dose gene-editing PCSK9 therapy that produced mean LDL-C reductions of 53% and PCSK9 protein reductions of 60% in the Heart-2 Phase 1b. CEO Sekar Kathiresan calls it a “one dose future” for cardiovascular disease. Lilly holds an opt-in. The math points toward an outright acquisition rather than an opt-in.
What To Watch
The trillion-dollar headline is already crowded. Viking, Scholar Rock, and Verve sit further upstream, where acquirer interest tends to surface first.
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