Where Will Costco Stock Be In 2028?

Costco (NASDAQ:COST | COST Price Prediction) just hit a fresh 52-week high after the warehouse giant raised its quarterly dividend 13% to $1.47 per share, marking 22 consecutive years of dividend hikes.

The business is firing on every cylinder: Q2 FY2026 revenue of $69.6 billion, 82.1 million paid memberships, and a 89.7% worldwide renewal rate. Shares are up 25.19% YTD. The real question is whether Costco can stretch the multiple high enough to reach $1,400 by 2028.

Why Costco Shares Keep Bumping Into a Valuation Ceiling

The market keeps deciding the price is full. The trailing P/E sits at 55, with a PEG ratio of 5.12 and an EV/EBITDA of 31.11. Those are software multiples on a warehouse retailer. Sentiment has cooled, with the composite reading dropping 6.63 points over the past 7 days to 57.56, a neutral reading.

A federal disability discrimination verdict carrying a $200,000 award added a small ESG overhang. With a beta of 0.908, COST does not move violently in either direction. The 1-week gain of 7.7% shows buyers remain, but every push higher invites a fresh valuation debate.

Wall Street Sees Almost No Upside

The consensus target sits at $1,072.91, basically flat with today’s price. The breakdown: 3 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 12 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Our internal base case for 2028 sits at $1,225, with a bull case of $1,346.29 and a bear case of $1,039.61, all carried with 90% confidence.

The analyst pool is 61% bullish but their price targets have not caught up to 45.5% YoY earnings growth. Targets reset slowly. Fundamentals are running faster than the models.

The Path to $1,400 Per Share by 2028

At $1,076.47 against forward EPS of $20.19, Costco trades at roughly 53x forward earnings. Shares sit fractionally below the 52-week high of $1,079.83 and well above the 52-week low of $841.69. That is rich on every traditional yardstick. But the 10-year return of 793.26% tells you exactly why investors keep paying up: this membership flywheel has rewarded patience for a decade.

Reaching $1,400 from today’s price of $1,076.47 would require a gain of 30.1%. With forward EPS of $20.19, a price of $1,400 implies a forward P/E of 69x. Our base case of $1,225 already implies 61x, meaning the bold target requires roughly 8x of additional multiple expansion on top of forward EPS growth.

Is $1,400 Realistic?

$1,400 by 2028 requires a 30.1% gain and a forward multiple of 69x. That is a stretch, not a slam dunk. Three things need to go right: membership renewals stay near 90%, the warehouse count crosses 942 on schedule with comp sales above 5%, and the executive membership mix keeps drifting toward 75.8% penetration or higher.

A sharp consumer pullback that breaks ticket growth and forces multiple compression derails it. We’ve outlined the blueprint for how Costco could reach $1,400 in 2028.