XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has fallen roughly 3% over the last 24 hours to trade below the $1.30 key support level after news of fresh attacks between the U.S. and Iran. The coin remains 66.6% below its all-time high of $3.84, leaving many holders wondering whether this is the right time to accumulate or if it makes more sense to wait for the Senate’s full CLARITY Act vote.
Historically, XRP has reacted strongly to positive regulatory developments, with the latest example coming after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. We examined whether buying XRP now offers a better risk-reward setup or if waiting for the final Senate decision is the smarter move.
How XRP Has Reacted to Major Regulatory News
XRP has historically been one of the most regulation-sensitive assets in the crypto market. In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple over an alleged $1.3 billion unregistered securities offering tied to XRP sales. Investor confidence collapsed almost immediately following the news, triggering a 66.5% decline and sending XRP from around $0.60 in November to nearly $0.20 by the end of December.
The momentum flipped on July 13, 2023, when a Federal judge ruled that XRP sales on secondary markets did not qualify as securities transactions. The decision triggered an immediate rally from roughly $0.47 to $0.88 in a single trading session, representing an 87% gain.
The ruling restored investor confidence in XRP and helped support a broader recovery toward its $3.65 cycle high on July 18, 2025, three weeks before Ripple and the SEC formally ended the case on August 7, 2025 with a $50 million settlement.
In 2026, regulatory developments are playing a key role in driving XRP’s price action despite difficult market conditions that produced six straight monthly losses between October 2025 and March 2026. In March, a joint SEC and CFTC statement identifying XRP and fifteen other cryptos as digital commodities boosted sentiment and helped lift XRP from $1.44 to $1.54 within hours, before profit-taking from holders pulled it back to the $1.40 range.
More recently, the Senate Banking Committee’s approval of the CLARITY Act triggered another short-term rally, with XRP climbing from $1.42 to $1.52. However, sell orders clustered around the $1.44-$1.45 break-even zone quickly capped momentum and dragged the token lower again, showing that XRP would need a stronger catalyst like the full Senate vote to sustain a move above that zone.
The Road to a Full Senate Vote on the CLARITY Act
The CLARITY Act faces the critical step of a full Senate vote, which requires at least 60 votes to prevent a filibuster, including support from seven or more Democrats. But before this can happen, lawmakers must reconcile differences with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version of the bill and resolve the ethics issues tied to President Trump’s crypto holdings.
While the SEC and CFTC have agreed on a regulatory framework that largely aligns with the CLARITY Act, the legislation’s passage would give legal backing to cryptocurrencies, removing the uncertainties that have capped institutional participation in the digital market. It will also make it significantly harder for a future administration to reverse the opinion of both regulatory bodies on XRP’s status as a digital commodity.
The realistic passage window has been between June and the early August recess, with the White House’s July 4 deadline now looking ambitious. If the Senate vote comes in June-July, XRP could rally above $1.50 on the back of its most important catalyst of the year.
Anything beyond that window could see the timeline stretching further, with midterm elections looming in November, which could stall the bill even further and place it before a potentially less favorable Congress in 2027.
Should You Enter XRP Ahead of the Full Senate CLARITY Act Vote?
We think positioning in XRP ahead of a full Senate vote offers a better risk-reward setup than waiting for final approval. XRP has repeatedly rallied on the back of positive regulatory developments, which means taking a position before the vote captures both short-term momentum and long-term upside.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions are adding another layer to the setup. Fresh conflicts between the U.S. and Iran have pressured crypto assets across the board, with reported strikes on Iranian military infrastructure and retaliatory drone activity near a U.S. base in Kuwait. That broader risk-off sentiment pushed XRP below the key $1.30 support level last tested on April 7, with the token now trading near $1.28.
While that weakness may look concerning in the short-term, it also means investors are entering far below previous rally levels near $1.52 reached after the Banking Committee vote. If the Senate ultimately advances the CLARITY Act, XRP could rally above $1.50 and reach $1.80, which would make $1.28 the entry price that precedes the move and relatively cheaper looking back.
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