Everyone is still looking at Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction), because the robotaxi is always six months away and Optimus is always one demo away from changing the world. But the more interesting flight path is happening elsewhere. While Tesla bulls keep paying 405 times earnings for promises pushed into 2026 and beyond, an actual eVTOL aircraft just ferried paying-curious passengers between JFK and Manhattan, and the FAA quietly opened the door to 9 more states.
The company doing the flying is Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY), and the contrarian case writes itself. Tesla’s market cap sits at $1.66 trillion on automotive revenue that fell 11% in the most recent full quarter and full-year net income that dropped 46.79%. Joby’s market cap is $12 billion.
It’s obviously very early stage, but what has been happening is very promising and the stock has surged 55% off its lows. White House support is proving to be pivotal in getting approved in new states.
Why The Self-Driving Story Lost The Plot
Tesla’s Q1 2026 revenue grew 15.8%, barely beating estimates, with EPS of $0.41. Operating expenses, meanwhile, surged 37-50% year over year on AI and R&D spending that has yet to produce a deployed Cybercab, a saleable Optimus, or unsupervised FSD.
Net profit margin is 4.0%. Return on equity is 4.9%. You are paying a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 265.9 for a car company whose own insiders are net sellers and whose Optimus release probability by year end sits at 13.5%. The trade is crowded, the multiple is absurd, and the catalysts keep sliding right.
What Actually Happened Over New York
Joby just completed the first point-to-point eVTOL demonstration flights in New York City, connecting JFK to Manhattan heliports in under 10 minutes. That is a flying aircraft with a charging partnership at East 34th Street Heliport.
Through the Blade acquisition, the company is already operating passenger routes in New York and Southern Europe, with first paying passengers in Dubai expected in 2026 under an exclusive 6-year air taxi rights agreement. Management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $105 to $115 million. Q1 revenue came in at $24 million against a net loss of $110 million.
The FAA Decision That Unlocks 13 States
The FAA’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program covers 26 states in total, with Joby approved to fly in 10 states.
Joby logged a record 18-point FAA progress increase in Stage 4 Type Certification in Q4 2025, with FAA pilots expected to fly “for credit” test flights this year. CEO JoeBen Bevirt called it bluntly: “2026 will mark a key inflection point for Joby… we’ve begun to shift our focus from how and when we’ll go to market, to how many aircraft we can produce and where to deploy them.”
Toyota wrote a $500 million check. Cathie Wood added 119,000 shares. The balance sheet holds $2.5 billion in cash.
The Catch: 141x Sales And Real Losses
Yes, the price-to-sales ratio sits above 141x. Yes, the company is deeply pre-revenue, EBITDA is negative $747 million. Reddit sentiment scored 35 (bearish) across most of last week. This is venture risk dressed up as a public stock.
But the asymmetry is the point. Tesla needs to grow into 405 times earnings. Joby needs to grow into $12 billion, with a Type Certificate, a Dubai monopoly, and a federal program already in motion.
Joby is worth tracking before the FAA certificate and Dubai’s first paying passenger turn into the next round of headlines.
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