The Trump administration is about to hand five equipment makers a margin gift, and the window to position is closing fast. I’ve been tracking this tariff-relief setup across the industrial complex for months, and per the Marketplace Morning Report’s Nova Safo, tariffs on imported agricultural and manufacturing machinery containing steel, aluminum, and copper drop from 25% to 15% starting next Monday, easing input costs on tractors, combines, bulldozers, material-handling gear, and HVAC systems. That 25% rate was itself a step down from 50%, and the White House is openly framing the cut as midterm-cycle relief for housing, manufacturing, and agriculture. Every name on this list has explicitly blamed tariffs for crushing margins in their most recent quarter. Now the headwind reverses.
#1. Carrier Global (CARR): The Stock Nobody’s Calling a Tariff Trade
Start with the name that isn’t on the farm-equipment desk’s screen. Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR | CARR Price Prediction) makes HVAC systems, which sit squarely inside the White House’s targeted relief bucket: residential housing, light commercial construction, and the data center cooling boom. Tariff uncertainty has been a recurring item in Carrier’s risk disclosures, and the company’s Climate Solutions Americas residential business is the one bleeding from steel and copper costs. Cutting the derivative tariff from 25% to 15% directly relieves that pressure.
The demand side is already screaming. In Q1 2026, Carrier reported adjusted EPS of $0.57 versus a $0.51 estimate, revenue of $5.34 billion (up 2.4% year over year), and the eye-popper: data center orders up more than 500% with total commercial HVAC orders up 35%, the sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in that segment. CEO David Gitlin said “Orders in our global Commercial HVAC business increased 35%, helped by data centers which were up over 500% in the quarter.” Strip out the residential drag (which the tariff cut directly addresses) and what’s left is an AI-cooling growth story trading like an industrial cyclical.
Shares are up about 27% year-to-date, but down roughly 4% over the past year. The market hasn’t connected the housing-relief narrative to Carrier yet. The next name on this list, by contrast, is already being priced for perfection.
#2. Caterpillar (CAT): The Heavyweight With a Record Backlog
If the White House wants to stimulate construction and manufacturing, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) is the company those tariffs were grinding hardest. In Q4 2025, CAT booked $1.03 billion in tariff-related manufacturing costs, compressing operating margin to 13.9% from 18.0%. The Resource Industries segment took a 39% drop in segment profit with a 7-point margin compression on the same tariff dynamic. Every basis point of that relief now flips to operating leverage.
The Q1 2026 report already showed how violently this business levers up when costs cooperate. CAT delivered EPS of $5.54 versus a $4.64 estimate, revenue of $17.42 billion (up 22.2% year over year), and a Construction Industries segment that grew 38% with operating margin expanding 1.6 points to 21.4%. Power Generation, the AI data center play, posted 41% growth. CEO Joe Creed said “A record backlog provides a strong foundation for continued positive momentum.”
The stock has been a freight train: up roughly 60% year-to-date and up about 167% over the past year. That makes the next name on this list more interesting, because it just received a tariff refund check the market hasn’t fully digested.
#3. Deere & Company (DE): The Refund Check Is Already in the Mail
Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) doesn’t need to wait for next Monday’s tariff cut. In Q2 fiscal 2026, Deere booked a $272 million recovery tied to the Supreme Court’s invalidation of IEEPA tariffs, flowing straight through production costs. That’s real cash, already on the P&L, before this latest derivative-tariff rollback kicks in. The next leg adds margin on top of margin.
The cycle setup matters as much as the tariff math. Deere’s Q2 FY26 numbers: EPS of $6.55, revenue of $13.37 billion (up 6.7% year over year), and Construction & Forestry net sales up 29% with margins expanded to 14.8%. The kicker comes from CEO John May, who said “2026 represents the bottom of the current cycle and provides us with a strong foundation for accelerated growth going forward.” A trough call from the largest player in the space is the kind of statement you build a position around.
Shares are up about 25% year-to-date, with a 9% pop in just the past week. The next stock on this list is smaller, more concentrated, and just raised its own guidance with the old tariff regime fully baked in.
#4. AGCO Corporation (AGCO): Guidance Raised Before the Cut
AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) is the pure-play farm equipment name, the company most directly in the line of fire when crop prices are near breakeven and tariff costs are crushing the North American business. Management has been explicit that tariff input costs pushed the North America segment’s operating margin into negative territory. Cut the tariff, and the most painful piece of AGCO’s footprint stops bleeding.
What makes this trade asymmetric: AGCO already raised full-year 2026 guidance, and that guidance assumes tariff policies as of May 5, 2026 remain in place. Specifically: net sales of $10.50–$10.70 billion, adjusted operating margins of 7.5%–8.0%, and adjusted EPS of approximately $6.00. The Q1 report itself was a blowout: adjusted EPS of $0.94 versus a $0.44 estimate, with EMEA delivering near-record Q1 operating margin of 16.2% on $1.60 billion in sales (up 20.3%). Tariff relief on the North American business is the upside that isn’t in the guide.
Capital returns sweeten the setup: dividend raised to $0.30 per share and a $350 million buyback program starting Q2 2026. AGCO trades at a trailing P/E of 11, with the stock up 14% year-to-date. Cheap, levered, and now getting a tariff tailwind it didn’t price in. The last name on this list is cheaper still, and more leveraged to this exact catalyst than anything else on the desk.
#5. CNH Industrial (CNH): The Maximum-Torque Rebound
Here’s the payoff. CNH Industrial (NYSE:CNH) straddles both agriculture and construction equipment through Case IH and New Holland. It is the most tariff-exposed name on this list, the smallest market cap, and trading near cycle lows. When the relief check arrives, CNH has the most operating leverage to it.
The number that matters: in Q1 2026, CNH revised its Construction segment tariff margin impact upward to approximately 600 basis points, from 500 bps previously. Management has explicitly stated a long-term target of 7–8% Construction adjusted EBIT margin at mid-cycle, versus current FY 2026 guidance of 1.0%–2.0%. CEO Gerrit Marx said “We believe the industry is moving through the lowest period of the current agriculture cycle, assuming global trade routes are open.” Trade routes are about to get more open.
The setup writes itself: a forward P/E of 23, PEG ratio of 0.56, analyst target price of $13.25 against a stock that’s been left for dead. Shares are up 20% year-to-date but still down 11% over the past year and down 30% over five years. The smallest name on this list, with the largest tariff exposure, sitting at the bottom of the cycle, just as the policy reverses.
The Window
Five companies. One policy lever. Carrier captures the housing and AI-cooling angle the market hasn’t connected. Caterpillar and Deere are the heavyweights with backlogs and refunds already in motion. AGCO already raised guidance with the old tariffs intact. CNH carries the maximum torque on the rebound. The cut starts next Monday, per the Marketplace report, and the names most exposed to the headwind are the ones most levered to the relief. The trade is to figure out which one matches your risk tolerance before next Monday closes the gap.
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