D.A. Davidson’s head of technology research, Gil Luria, used a CNBC “Closing Bell Overtime” appearance to argue that the chip rally has produced a valuation contradiction investors should not ignore. His framing: both major semiconductor ETFs are up more than 80% this year, while memory names have surged 300% or more, yet the multiples investors are paying across the group cannot all be right at the same time.
Luria sees a dislocation in the group. Intel’s price implies the AI cycle runs through 2028-2030, while Micron (which he cited at about 11x earnings) and NVIDIA (about 20x earnings) imply the cycle is about to peak. In his words: “That’s a dislocation. That doesn’t make sense. You can either believe one or the other, not both.”
The Intel Problem
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) trades around $134, while our proprietary 24/7 Wall St. price prediction carries a 1-year target near $103 and a SELL rating, implying roughly -23% downside and an implied P/E north of 200. Analyst consensus is cautious, with 2 strong buy, 10 buy, 31 hold, 2 sell, and 3 strong sell ratings.
Luria credited the strategic case. Intel’s roughly 10% surge is partly justified by real strategic value, including U.S.-based manufacturing and CPU scarcity, but he warned that “over especially the last decade, the execution from Intel has been very uneven.” He pointed out that the Apple foundry deal requires Intel to execute cleanly through 2028 without much of a hitch.
Q1 FY2026 revenue came in at $13.58B, up 7.2% YoY, with Data Center and AI up 22% and Intel Foundry up 16%. CEO Lip-Bu Tan framed the opportunity as “the next wave of AI” moving toward inference and agentic workloads. Full results are in the company’s Q1 SEC filing. The risk is paying turnaround multiples for a story requiring flawless execution.
The Better-Executing Alternatives
Luria suggests investors seeking AI-cycle exposure can get it through better-executing names without betting on a turnaround.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades near $211 against a model target of $257, a BUY with roughly +22% upside and about 95% bullish analyst sentiment. Q1 FY2027 revenue was $81.62B, up 85.2% YoY, with Data Center revenue of $75.25B (+92%). Jensen Huang called the AI factory buildout “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.”
AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) trades around $537, model target $570, a BUY with +6% upside. The MI450 cycle, including a Meta partnership to deploy up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, is the catalyst. Q1 revenue hit $10.25B, up 37.9% YoY, with Data Center up 57%.
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) trades at $411, model target $498, a BUY with +21% upside. AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.80B, up 143% YoY, and Hock Tan guided Q3 AI semi revenue to $16.0 billion.
The Micron Tension
Micron (NASDAQ:MU) is where Luria’s thesis collides with the data. He pitched Micron as an execution name and flagged a bullish setup: Apple previously said it could absorb higher memory costs but now appears set to raise handset prices substantially, signaling memory pricing power is sticky. Fiscal Q2 revenue was $23.86B (+196.3% YoY) with GAAP gross margin of 74.4%.
Yet Micron trades at $1,134 against a model target of $713, a SELL with roughly -37% implied downside, even as Wall Street remains bullish at about 9 strong buy, 30 buy, 4 hold, and 1 sell. Micron looks ‘cheap’ when compared to its 2026 EPS estimate of $84.09. Yet, keep in mind why our model might be more conservative on the stock. Micron currently holds about an 81% gross margin. That’s significantly above what the company saw in historical peaks. Yet, if the memory cycle lasts deeper (into 2030 or beyond), which is consistent where Intel shares are trading, then Micron could end up being a large winner even from today’s prices.
Foundry And Equipment Picks
Luria also pointed to leading foundry and lithography names as ways to play the AI supply chain, along with demand-side beneficiaries whose Q2 FY26 revenue reached $111.2B (+16.6%) sits at the end of this chain. Both foundry and equipment leaders are foreign-domiciled but U.S.-listed via depositary shares. ASML is a name to watch in this segment.
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