At $77.38, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) screens as attractively valued. The streamer slipped under $78 on company-specific disappointment, with the S&P 500 actually +9.51% year to date even as NFLX trades at four-year-low multiples.
Netflix runs the world’s largest paid streaming service with 325 million+ paid memberships, a rapidly scaling ad tier, and operating margins targeted to expand to 31.5% in 2026. Two failed deals (Roku to Fox; Warner Bros. walked away) reframed the narrative from disciplined compounder to frustrated acquirer, even as Q1 revenue grew 16.19% and free cash flow climbed 91.44%.
The selloff has dragged shares within striking distance of the $75.01 52-week low, well below the $98.35 200-day moving average.
Why $77 Looks Like an Entry
NFLX now trades at a 25 trailing P/E and 24 forward P/E, roughly in line with the broad market for a business growing revenue in the mid-teens with expanding margins. Futurum’s Shay Boloor called it the “cheapest valuation in 4 years.”
The growth engines are quantifiable. Ad revenue is on track to roughly double to ~$3 billion in 2026, the ad tier represented over 60% of sign-ups in ads markets last quarter, and advertiser count grew 70% year over year. Management raised 2026 free cash flow guidance to ~$12.5 billion and resumed buybacks, repurchasing 13.5 million shares for $1.3 billion in Q1 with $6.8 billion still authorized.
The Case That the Reset Isn’t Over
Q1 EPS of $1.23, missing the $1.345 estimate by 8.55%, was inflated by a $2.80 billion Warner Bros. termination fee. Strip that out, and operational growth is far less heroic than headlines suggest.
Prediction markets signal pain may continue. Polymarket participants assign a 54% probability NFLX prints $75 in June, and only a 35.5% probability of closing above $80 by month-end. Insiders are net sellers across 121 recent transactions, with director Bradford Smith offloading 35,990 shares on June 17.
The Argument for Patience
The stock has fallen 36.69% over the past year, but it has not stabilized. Shares are down 13.38% in the last month alone, suggesting downtrend momentum. Q2 guidance was viewed as soft, and content amortization is expected to peak in Q2 2026 before decelerating. Waiting one print to confirm margin expansion holds at the guided 32.6% Q2 level is defensible.
What the Numbers Say at $77.38
NFLX trades at $77.38 against a Wall Street consensus target of $114.15, implying roughly 47.5% upside if the Street is right. The ratings split skews bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 29 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell across 50 analysts.
Year to date, Netflix is down 17.47% while the S&P 500 is up 9.51%, a roughly 27-point gap that frames the “market panic” thesis as overstated. This is a NFLX-specific reset. Valuation metrics support that: P/E of 24, EV/EBITDA of 9.62, and return on equity of 48.5%.
What $77.38 Means for Netflix
The path to appreciation is mechanical. Advertising revenue doubling to ~$3 billion drops into a business running a 32.3% operating margin, and management’s reaffirmed $50.7B-$51.7B revenue guide implies 12% to 14% top-line growth. The Warner Bros. walk-away funds accelerated buybacks against four-year-low multiples.
Risk/reward at four-year-low valuation is asymmetric. A re-rating back to the $107.99 Q1 filing price requires nothing more than reaffirmed guidance. The thesis breaks if Q2 operating margin misses the 32.6% guide or if ad revenue trajectory flattens. Track those two metrics next print.
Buying a premium streamer at a market-multiple P/E while ad revenue doubles and free cash flow scales to $12.5 billion is the setup the bulls are underwriting.
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