Famous Tech Investor Tom Lee: Yesterday’s SMH & SOXX Sell-Off Has Historically Led to an 88% Win Rate the Next Month

Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, used a CNBC appearance on June 24, 2026 to argue that the latest sharp semiconductor pullback is the kind of dislocation long-term buyers should welcome. His core message: sharp one-day drops in the chip complex have historically marked mid-cycle dislocations inside bull markets.

Lee’s framing matters because it lands on a meaningful day for the sector. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q3 results after the close tonight, giving the semi narrative an immediate test. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 2.23% over the past week, while NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has slipped 6.99% over the past month to around $200.

Lee’s Historical Stat on Semi Selloffs

Lee anchored his thesis on a backtest: the semiconductor index has fallen 6% or more in a single day 17 times historically, and 88% of those instances saw the index higher one month later, with a median gain of 12%. In his framing, sharp single-day drawdowns in semis are typically buyable.

Yesterday, major semiconductor indexes like the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (Nasdaq: SMH) and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (Nasdaq: SOXX) both plummeted by more than 6%. In late trading today, they’re both down more than 2%, bringing their multi-day losses to more than 8% ahead of Micron’s earnings.

Lee also pushed back on the idea that the broader market is stretched. He noted that S&P 500 earnings have risen by almost $50 since January 2026, with the forward P/E compressing from 19 to 18. His read: the index is cheaper than it was six months ago, even after the rally.

NVIDIA: The Anchor of the AI Capex Cycle

Lee cited NVIDIA as trading around 20x forward earnings, a multiple that looks reasonable given the company’s growth profile. NVIDIA’s most recent quarter, reported on May 20, 2026, delivered revenue of $81.61 billion, up 85.2% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 beating consensus for the fourth consecutive quarter. Data Center revenue reached $75.25 billion (+92% YoY), and networking alone grew 199% YoY. Per the company’s 8-K filing, total supply-related commitments now stand at $119 billion, signaling an order book stretching well into next year.

Jensen Huang described the moment as “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history”. Analyst sentiment matches that posture, with 48 Buy and 10 Strong Buy ratings versus just 2 Holds, and an average target of $298.93.

Micron: The Cheaper Memory Play Into Tonight’s Earnings

Lee pegged Micron at roughly 10x forward earnings, a striking discount given the company’s recent results. Micron’s Q2 FY2026, reported March 18, 2026, posted revenue of $23.86 billion (+196.3% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $12.20, comfortably beating expectations. Cloud Memory generated $7.75 billion at a 74% gross margin, and management guided Q3 to $33.5 billion in revenue with gross margin near 81%.

Polymarket traders are leaning into a strong print: 97.1% probability of an earnings beat tonight. Shares are at around $1,045 after a 268.68% year-to-date run. Analyst consensus target sits at $945.60.

The New Mag 7 Narrative

Lee reframed the Magnificent Seven’s shift from asset-light cash machines to balance-sheet-heavy capex builders as a strategic feature. In his words, “investors are going to start to view that balance sheet as a workforce”, with AI infrastructure replacing human labor. He sees room for further S&P 500 upside into year-end driven by rising earnings revisions and durable growth.

Investors should weigh that this is one strategist’s case. The thesis rests on continued earnings acceleration and tangible AI ROI flowing through hyperscaler capex. If either softens, the valuation cushion Lee describes narrows quickly. For now, Micron’s report tonight is the next data point that will either reinforce or challenge his read on the chip cycle.