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This Stock Is My Biggest Bet For The Second Half of 2026

I keep buying NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) because every quarter the company reports, the math behind my thesis gets stronger. That is the whole confession. I have been adding on every pullback this year, including the 4.13% drop…

By Vandita Jadeja
Published June 24, 2026, 11:31am ET · 3 min read

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Jensen Huang wears a black textured leather jacket and holds up an NVIDIA graphics card with one hand while standing on a darkened stage at CES 2025.
Jensen Huang holds up an NVIDIA GPU during his keynote at CES 2025 in Las Vegas. The roughly 90-minute presentation covered a range of new products and announcements. (Photo: NVIDIA Blog) © NVIDIA Blog / Press

I keep buying NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) because every quarter the company reports, the math behind my thesis gets stronger. That is the whole confession. I have been adding on every pullback this year, including the 4.13% drop on June 23 that pushed shares back to $200.04, and I plan to keep doing it through the back half of 2026. Here is why.

An infographic with a dark background and white text, titled 'This Stock Is My Biggest Bet For The Second Half of 2026'. The core thesis is 'THE AI FACTORY INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION', featuring a quote from Jensen Huang. Below, the infographic is divided into three vertical columns: 'REASON ONE: ACCELERATING GROWTH CURVE', 'REASON TWO: MARGINS & CASH RETURNS', and 'REASON THREE: WIDENING COMPETITIVE MOAT'. Reason One (blue column) includes a line graph showing data center revenue growth percentages from Q2 FY26 (+55.6%) to Q1 FY27 (+85.2%), a bar chart indicating +199% growth in Data Center Networking for Q1 FY27, text stating Data Center Revenue Q1 FY27 was $75.25 billion (+92% YoY), Q2 FY27 Guidance is $91.0 billion +/-2%, and Total Supply Commitments are $119.0 billion. Reason Two (green column) displays a pie chart showing a Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 75.0% for Q1 FY27, stacked coins representing Free Cash Flow of $48.55 billion (+85.41% YoY) for Q1 FY27, and green arrows pointing to a Dividend Increase from $0.01 to $0.25 per share (25x increase) and an Additional Buyback Authorization of $80.0 billion. Text also mentions approximately $20.0 billion returned to shareholders in Q1 FY27 alone. Reason Three (blue column) features logos and text for key customers/partners like Meta (Millions of Blackwell/Rubin GPUs), OpenAI (10 GW deployment), Anthropic (1 GW), and CoreWeave (5+ GW by 2030). A clipboard icon highlights Four Straight EPS Beats, with Q1 FY27 EPS at $1.87 versus a $1.7738 consensus. Valuation metrics include a Forward P/E of 24, PEG of 0.642, and a Market Cap of approximately $5.05 trillion as of 2026-04-30. A red section titled 'HONEST RISK: CHINA EXPOSURE' contains a bar chart comparing Q1 FY27 (ZERO) H20 shipments to China with Prior Year Q1 ($4.6 billion) H20 shipments, alongside text noting that Q2 FY27 guidance assumes no data center compute revenue from China. The final section, 'WHAT KEEPS THE BUY BUTTON ACTIVE', shows the Current Price of $200.04 as of 2026-06-23, with an upward arrow pointing to the Analyst Consensus Target of $298.93 (58 Buys / 1 Sell), listing compounding cash returns, margin expansion, accelerating growth, and installed base across all clouds as key drivers.
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The core thesis in human terms

Jensen Huang calls what is happening right now “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” I think he is right, and I think NVIDIA sits at the toll booth. Every hyperscaler, sovereign, neocloud, and enterprise that wants to train or serve a frontier model has to come through this company’s stack. That is a structural position I want to own for the next decade.

Three reasons the thesis holds

Reason one: the growth curve is accelerating. Revenue growth has gone +55.6% in Q2, +62.5% in Q3, +73.2% in Q4, and +85.2% in Q1 FY27. Data Center revenue hit $75.25 billion last quarter, up 92% year over year, with networking inside that segment growing 199%.

Management guided Q2 FY27 to $91 billion, and they have beaten the prior two guides by billions. Total supply commitments now sit at $119 billion. That is locked-in demand visibility.

NVDA earnings explorer

Reason two: margins and cash returns are doing the work. Non-GAAP gross margin printed at 75%. Free cash flow last quarter was $48.55 billion, up 85.41%. The board raised the dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share and authorized an additional $80 billion buyback on top of $38.5 billion still available.

Roughly $20 billion came back to shareholders in a single quarter. That is a capital return program I want compounding alongside my position.

Reason three: the moat keeps widening. The customer list reads like the entire AI economy: Meta committing to millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, OpenAI on 10 gigawatts, Anthropic on 1 gigawatt, CoreWeave on 5+ gigawatts by 2030.

Four straight EPS beats, with last quarter at $1.87 against a $1.7738 consensus. And the valuation looks reasonable for this growth rate: forward P/E of 24, PEG of 0.642, against a market cap near $5.05 trillion.

The real risk

China. NVIDIA shipped zero H20 compute products to China last quarter, against $4.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. The Q2 FY27 guide assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China at all. That is a real hole in the business that export restrictions could keep open indefinitely.

What keeps me buying anyway: the company guided to $91 billion with that revenue already zeroed out, and growth is still accelerating. The thesis holds even with China taken to zero.

What keeps the buy button active

Wall Street consensus target sits at $298.93 from 58 buys against 1 sell. Forward P/E of 24. A dividend that just jumped 25x. A buyback authorization with no expiration. An installed base running every cloud and every frontier model.

NVDA analyst ratings

I own NVIDIA because the AI factory buildout is a multi-year story and the company collecting the toll is also returning cash and compounding margins while it grows. I will keep buying for as long as the receipts say I should.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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