Every Time This Stock Dips, I Buy More

My cost basis on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) keeps climbing, and I keep adding anyway. The stock dropped 12.46% over the past month. I bought. It closed the most recent session at $194.83, down 1.39% on the day. I bought again.

This is the position I cannot stop building, because the company running under the ticker is powering what its CEO calls “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.”

The pull is simple. NVIDIA sells the compute every serious AI project needs, and the buyers show up with sovereign-sized checkbooks. Meta committed to millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs.

OpenAI signed for at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems. Anthropic started with 1 gigawatt of Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin. CoreWeave is building 5+ gigawatts of AI factories by 2030. That customer list looks like a toll road under the AI economy.

Here is why the buy button stays warm

Growth is accelerating. Q1 FY2027 revenue hit $81.61B, up 85.2% year over year, beating the estimate by 3.16%. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 beat by 5.42%, the fourth consecutive beat. Data Center alone did $75.25B, up 92%. Networking inside that segment ran $14.8B, up 199%. Management guided Q2 to $91B.

Margins and cash flow are the second reason. Non-GAAP gross margin sits at 75%, up from 60.8% a year ago. Operating income hit $53.54B, up 147.42%. Free cash flow in a single quarter was $48.55B, up 85.41%. Full fiscal 2026 delivered $96.58B in free cash flow on $215.94B of revenue. Shareholders’ equity of $195.47B stands against just $64B of total liabilities.

Third, management is returning cash to me. The board raised the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25, a 25x increase, and authorized another $80B in buybacks on top of $38.5B already remaining. Roughly $20B was returned to shareholders in Q1 alone. Supply commitments climbed to $119B, which reads to me as demand already booked.

The Real Risk

China. H20 shipments went to zero in the quarter versus $4.6B in the year-ago period, and Q2 guidance excludes any China Data Center compute revenue. Export restrictions are real, and TSMC concentration adds a single point of manufacturing dependency.

I have sat with this. My conviction holds because the rest of the world is buying so aggressively that the company still guided to $91B for next quarter with a zero from China baked in. If restrictions ease, that is upside I am not paying for.

Valuation is the fair pushback. Trailing P/E is 30, forward P/E is 23, PEG is 0.616. For a business compounding revenue at 85% with 75% gross margins and $48B of quarterly free cash flow, those numbers work for me. The consensus analyst target sits at $301.62. Polymarket traders cluster the July outcome at $192 with a 98% probability of closing above $140.

I keep buying because the AI factory buildout is early, the customer commitments are contractual, the cash is real, and the board is sending it back. Every dip is the market handing me a discount on the same thesis I owned last quarter. The buy button stays live.

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