Miller Tabak Chief Market Strategist Matt Maley believes investors should keep a close eye on two often-overlooked warning signs: the Japanese yen and South Korea’s KOSPI index. During CNBC’s Morning Call Sheet yesterday, he argued that a reversal in the popular yen carry trade and continued weakness in Korean stocks could signal broader trouble for global markets.
For investors with exposure to semiconductor equipment and chip stocks, those signals could prove especially important, as many of the industry’s largest customers are concentrated in Asia.
Why a Japanese Yen Reversal Could Rattle Global Markets
Maley pointed to crowded positioning against the Japanese yen as a potential accelerant if the Bank of Japan is forced to defend its currency. “There’s some speculation that the BOJ will have to come in at some point and defend their currency. And we certainly know from the CFTC data that the short position in the yen is very, very large. So a lot of people are on one side of the boat. So if that situation starts to unwind and the carry trade starts to unwind, that could put some pressure on the markets.”
The USD/JPY rate stood at 161.93 as of July 6, 2026, and the VIX closed at 15.81 on July 3, 2026, sitting in the 22.6th percentile of its 12-month distribution and well below the 18.088 average.
The Overseas Market Maley Says Investors Should Watch Closely
On Korea, Maley reached back a quarter-century for his analogy. “I just note that in 2000, when the bubble burst in 2000, the KOSPI was the first one to go down several months in advance of the rest of the world. So it’s important to keep a close eye on that.” He added that the KOSPI has been very choppy over the last month, with Samsung set to report earnings this week and SK Hynix’s ADR set to begin trading in the U.S. Both are memory chipmakers and major customers of U.S.-listed equipment and design names that investors can trade.
Why Lam Research Could Feel the Impact First
Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX | LRCX Price Prediction) is arguably one of the companies that would feel the biggest impact of negative KOSPI developments. In its March 2026 quarter, South Korea contributed $1.344 billion, or 23% of revenue, matching Taiwan and trailing only China’s $1.986 billion. Combined Asia-Pacific exposure sits at roughly 87% of the $5.841 billion quarterly total. CEO Tim Archer noted “Lam delivered record revenue and EPS in the March quarter as AI-driven demand reshapes the semiconductor industry,” while the 10-Q explicitly flags trade regulations, export controls, and geopolitical tensions as material risks. Shares fell 12.55% in the week ending July 2, 2026, though the stock remained up 105.67% year to date.
Samsung’s Earnings Could Be a Major Test for ASML
ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) sells the EUV lithography tools that Samsung and SK Hynix rely on for advanced DRAM. Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $10.34 billion and EPS of $8.43, with a gross margin of 53.0%, and management raised full-year guidance to €36 billion to €40 billion. CEO Christophe Fouquet noted, “The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments,” though guidance explicitly accounts for export-control outcomes. Year-end 2025 backlog stood at $45.06 billion. Choppy Korean chip demand would show up here first in orders and push-outs.
Why Qualcomm Faces More Than One Headwind
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) already shows the strain Maley is warning about. Fiscal Q2 2026 handset revenue fell 13% year over year to $6.024 billion on memory supply constraints and Chinese OEM softness, and Q3 guidance implies further sequential decline at $9.2 billion to $10.0 billion in revenue and $2.10 to $2.30 in non-GAAP EPS. CEO Cristiano Amon framed the pivot toward “our entry into the data center, where a leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement is on track for initial shipments later this calendar year.” The stock trades at a forward P/E of about 16, and management has flagged China concentration as a standing risk in every recent filing.
What to Watch Next
Maley’s broader message is that market risks may first appear overseas before reaching U.S. stocks. A sharp reversal in the yen carry trade or continued weakness in South Korea’s KOSPI could signal tightening liquidity and softer demand for semiconductor equipment, creating headwinds for companies such as Lam Research, ASML, and Qualcomm. While none of these indicators guarantees a broader market downturn, Maley believes investors should monitor them in the weeks ahead.
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