Costco’s $250 Billion Expansion Strategy Keeps Delivering Results

$275.24 billion. That is what Costco (NASDAQ:COST | COST Price Prediction) rang up in revenue for fiscal year 2025, representing a +8.17% year-over-year haul that pushed the warehouse operator past a quarter-trillion dollars in annual sales. The company followed this impressive report with a Q3 FY2026 quarter that showed this growth machine is still accelerating in the right direction, posting $70.53 billion in revenue, up 11.58% year over year.

What It Means

A quarter-trillion-dollar retailer that keeps compounding sales at a double-digit clip is a rare animal. Costco is making this happen, while continuing to open physical stores. Management ended Q3 with 931 warehouses across 14 countries and told investors it now targets “30-plus net new openings per year in the coming years”, with roughly 12 new warehouses still scheduled for the remainder of FY2026.

The company’s membership model is what makes Costco’s top line so durable. Membership fees hit $1.37 billion in the quarter, up 10.7% year over year, on a 89.7% worldwide renewal rate and 82.9 million paid members. Executive memberships now account for 75.0% of net sales. Additionally, comparable sales rose 9.8% (6.6% adjusted for gas and FX), with digitally enabled comps up 21.5% and e-commerce site and app traffic up 37%.

Profitability is scaling with the company’s top line. FY2025 net income reached $8.099 billion (+9.94%), operating cash flow rose to $13.335 billion (+17.6%), and free cash flow expanded 18.22% to $7.837 billion. Q3 FY2026 net income came in at $2.19 billion, up 15.19%, on $4.93 diluted EPS that edged the $4.923 consensus.

Bull Case

I think Costco’s bull case rests on three data points that keep pointing the same direction.

First, membership economics. A 89.7% worldwide renewal rate paired with 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada means members overwhelmingly keep paying to shop. Executive memberships grew 9.6% year over year to 41.2 million, and CFO Gary Millerchip told the call the company is “seeing increases in membership upgrades from gold to executive”. That is recurring, high-margin income that flows straight through to the company’s bottom line.

Second, unit growth. Costco’s 30-plus net new openings per year cadence, backed by approximately $6.5 billion in FY26 capital expenditure, gives investors a physical, measurable growth lever. CEO Ron Vachris described a runway that stretches well beyond North America, with “very strong international expansion over the next five to ten years” across Canada, China, Korea, Japan, France, Spain, and the U.K.

Third, balance sheet and digital flywheel. Cash and equivalents jumped 36.93% year over year to $18.95 billion, and shareholders’ equity climbed 23.54% to $33.51 billion. Importantly, the company’s digital segment is compounding on top of the physical footprint. In fact, digitally-enabled comps were up 21.5%, same-day delivery averaging under 45 minutes in the U.S. with a 4.8 out of 5 satisfaction rating, and triple-digit growth in AI-search-driven traffic with the highest conversion rate of any channel.

Even the macro cross-currents work in Costco’s favor. Consumer sentiment sits at a 44.8 reading, well below the 60 recessionary threshold, yet May 2026 total PCE reached $22,059.8 billion, with food spending at $1,566.8 billion versus $1,518.3 billion a year earlier. Nervous households trade down to value, and Costco is the value.

Bottom Line

A retailer that clears $275.235 billion in annual revenue while still growing comps 9.8%, adding 30-plus warehouses per year, and renewing members at 89.7% is compounding on multiple axes at once.

Long-term holders should watch three data points from here: the pace of the remaining 12 FY2026 warehouse openings toward the 940 target, the trajectory of executive membership penetration above 75.0% of net sales, and any decision on the special dividend that Millerchip described as “typically the most effective way to return excess cash”. The quarter-trillion-dollar strategy is still adding warehouses, members, and cash faster than it is spending them.

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