Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) are down 5% to $138.58 in early Monday trading, a fresh record low that sits below the $150 debut price and well off the $225 peak on June 16. The slide extends a bruising stretch for the stock, which had already dropped 10% over the prior week.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) is off 4% to $78.10, and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is down 5% to $69.82. The Procure Space ETF (NYSEARCA:UFO), the sector’s cleanest proxy, is down 2% to $46.
The backdrop is risk-off market sentiment. The Strait of Hormuz conflict has lifted the WTI crude oil price and pushed the NASDAQ 100 down 1.09%, pressuring high-beta, pre-profit names first. WTI crude oil spiked 4.41% over the past 24 hours to $74.56 per barrel.
China Rocket Milestone Rattles the SpaceX Trade
Bernstein named China SpaceX’s “leading competitor” after China’s Long March 10B landed a reusable first-stage booster on July 10, the country’s first orbital-class booster recovery using a sea-based net-and-hook platform. That milestone punctures the narrative that reusability is a uniquely American moat.
Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating and a $239 price target, arguing SpaceX still leads by a wide margin with about 165 launches last year and nearly a decade of Falcon 9 reuse, while China has one landing and has not demonstrated booster reuse. The Street average SPCX stock price target sits near $242, and Raymond James carries a high $800 target.
The bear case is the valuation debate. SpaceX shares now trade below their IPO price, and critics call the multiple speculative given a a large market cap against a private operating business investors cannot model directly. The bull case leans on launch cadence dominance, Starlink cash flow, and scarcity value in a listed vehicle.
Rocket Lab Slides Despite a Space Force Win
Rocket Lab stock is falling despite positive news for the company, which underscores the macro nature of today’s move. The company announced full mission success on the U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE responsive-space demo, launching within 16 hours 42 minutes of notice, a record. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) carries a Buy rating and a $115 target following its latest acquisition plan.
The fundamentals remain firm. Rocket Lab’s recent quarterly revenue showed strong year-over-year growth, and backlog remains substantial. Yet, Rocket Lab shares have still shed 24% over the past month as the sector de-rated.
AST SpaceMobile Pulled Along on Sector Rotation
AST SpaceMobile stock is also lower despite the company’s own good news. The company received a New Zealand gateway license effective today and has BlueBird 11 at Cape Canaveral ahead of an August launch. It is targeting 45 satellites by year-end with agreements covering roughly 60 mobile operators.
The stock’s beta cuts both ways. ASTS shares are still up 55% over the past year, but they have given back 13% in the past week as oil-driven risk aversion hits speculative growth names.
What to Watch
The read-through is that SpaceX stock is leading the drop on the China competition scare and valuation fatigue, while Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile stocks are dropping in sympathy despite constructive company-specific news. That reflects sector rotation rather than a fundamentals downgrade.
For SpaceX, the cautious approach is to limit one’s position sizing. The stock is a fresh IPO trading below issue, and the analyst target dispersion between $242 and $800 reflects genuine uncertainty about how to price a launch monopoly against an awakening Chinese rival.
Investors can watch for whether crude retreats further, whether SPCX stock defends its debut price, and whether Bernstein or peers revisit their view on SpaceX after the Long March data. For now, the UFO ETF is a simple gauge of whether today’s selloff broadens or fades into the close.
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