Howard Marks hunts dislocation. His latest Oaktree 13F reveals five common-stock equity positions that look nothing like a bull-market portfolio: a leveraged turbo maker, the largest US gas producer bleeding YTD, a gold miner that just gave back a fifth of its price in three months, a tanker riding a geopolitical spike, and a specialty pharma with negative book value. Every one of these has moved sharply since the filing date. That’s the setup. Below, whether each is still a buy at today’s prices.
1. Garrett Motion (The Surprise Pick)
Garrett Motion (NASDAQ:GTX) is the position hiding in plain sight. Turbochargers sound like a fading auto-parts story until you read the Q1 filing: commercial vehicle and industrial sales climbed, aftermarket demand is accelerating, and management is buying back stock at a scale that dwarfs the dividend. Marks is betting on the internal combustion engine having a longer, more profitable tail than the market prices in, not on electrification playing out on the Street’s timeline.
The Q1 2026 report made the case. EPS of $0.49 beat the $0.428 estimate by 14.49%, revenue of $985M beat by 6.59% and grew 12.2% year over year, and net income jumped 53.2% to $95M. Management raised the FY26 guide to net sales of $3.6B to $3.9B and adjusted free cash flow of $355M to $475M, and authorized a $250M buyback program for 2026 on top of $87M already repurchased in Q1.
The stock has already responded. GTX is up 82.26% year to date and 171.99% over one year, and trades at roughly 18 times trailing earnings against an analyst price target of $35.67. That’s a low-single-digit percent of upside to consensus after a monster run. The buyback backstop supports the stock at current prices, with a more compelling risk/reward on any pullback into the high $20s. Marks got there first. Whether you follow is now a question of entry, not thesis.
2. Expand Energy (The Gas Heavyweight)
Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE | EXE Price Prediction) is the largest common-stock position in Marks’ book and the most bruised. The post-Southwestern merger left EXE as the largest US natural gas producer, which sounds like a category winner until you look at the stock. YTD, this stock has done the opposite of what the fundamentals suggest it should.
Q1 2026 was a blowout. Revenue of $4.40B crushed the $3.05B estimate by 43.96% and doubled year over year, net income surged 565% to $1.16B, and free cash flow hit $1.70B, up 218%. The company redeemed roughly $1.3B of gross debt year to date, ran $150M in buybacks, and locked in a 20-year LNG supply agreement with Delfin FLNG for about 1.15M tonnes per year targeting 2031. And yet shares are down 19.19% YTD and down 19.20% since Marks’ filing snapshot of March 31, 2026.
The disconnect is the trade. EXE trades at 7 times trailing earnings versus an analyst target of $125.32, with 3 strong-buy, 17 buy, and 6 hold ratings. Sentiment reads bullish at 63.79 with medium confidence. This screens as the cleanest setup on the list at current prices. Marks accumulated. The market handed him a lower entry after the fact. That’s a gift, not a warning.
3. AngloGold Ashanti (The Gold Heavyweight)
AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) is the macro trade inside a value portfolio. Gold has run. AU has run harder. And now it’s giving some back.
The fundamentals remain unmistakable. Gold price received per ounce climbed 69% year over year, the Sukari mine acquired via Centamin in November 2024 is fully integrated, and management declared a record interim dividend of $585M, or 116 cents per share, under a 50% of free cash flow policy. The Arthur Gold discovery in Nevada added substantial new reserves. One year of stock performance: up 71.21%. Three months of stock performance since Marks’ filing snapshot: down 20.64%.
At 11 times trailing earnings, a 5.81% dividend yield, and an analyst target of $114 against a current $76.55, the setup looks like a buy. The catch: news sentiment scores neutral at 56.30 with low confidence, and one analyst carries a sell rating against three strong-buys and four buys. AU screens attractively on this drawdown, with volatility argued for smaller sizing. The pullback is the entry Marks didn’t get.
4. TORM plc (The Rate Spike Trade)
TORM (NASDAQ:TRMD) is the position where the catalyst is on the front page. The Strait of Hormuz closure tied to the US/Israel-Iran conflict constrained roughly 14% of global clean petroleum product flows, and TORM’s fleet sits directly in the rerouting. Product tanker rates went vertical.
Fleet-wide time charter equivalent rates rose 30% year over year to $34,937 per day, LR2 spot rates jumped 73% to $50,811 per day, and 57% of Q2 earning days were already covered at an average $71,494 per day. Management raised the FY26 guide to TCE earnings of $1.15B to $1.45B and EBITDA of $800M to $1.10B. A $0.70 interim dividend equal to 58% of net profit went out the door.
The trade is where the trap lives. TRMD is up 58.04% YTD and 84.95% over one year, trading at 9 times trailing earnings and 5 times forward earnings with a 9.45% dividend yield. Analyst target: $34.50, roughly where the 52-week high sits, against one buy and one hold rating. The forward multiple screams cheap; the ratings tell you the Street thinks rates normalize. The yield anchors the thesis; position sizing should assume rates fade. If Hormuz reopens, the cushion is that dividend.
5. Indivior (The Payoff)
Indivior (NASDAQ:INDV) is what happens when the market gives up on a stock right before the operating leverage kicks in. Marks bought when the stock was ugly. The price has since caught up.
Q1 2026 obliterated estimates. EPS of $0.96 crushed the $0.66 estimate by 45.45%, revenue of $317M beat by 16.19% and grew 19.2%, net income jumped 89% to $89M, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 52% from 29% year over year. The single asset driving it: SUBLOCADE net revenue of $232M, up 32% year over year, with US dispense units up 20% and a record 31,800 new patient starts. Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to $1.215B to $1.285B and adjusted EBITDA to $620M to $660M, roughly 50% higher year over year at the midpoint.
The TAM math is what makes this the payoff slot. 7.8M Americans misuse opioids, 4.8M are diagnosed with OUD, only 2.0M receive BMAT, and long-acting injectable penetration of about 8.5% is expected to grow to 20% to 30%. INDV trades at 13 times forward earnings against an analyst target of $50.83, with one strong-buy and five buy ratings and zero holds or sells. Shares are up 33.17% since the filing snapshot and 160.19% over one year. This screens as compelling at current prices with a runway measured in years.
The Bottom Line
Marks’ top-five equity book is a study in mispricing. EXE screens as the clearest setup, priced below where Marks accumulated. AU is the volatility trade, on sale after a sharp pullback. INDV is the compounder the market kept mistaking for a lawsuit. TRMD and GTX have already run, and now demand discipline on entry. The window on the first three is the one closing fastest.
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