Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management just handed retail investors a cheat sheet. The latest 13F filing, disclosing holdings as of March 31, 2026, reveals five US-listed long positions that stretch from precious metals royalties to AI infrastructure. One of them has already returned 90.1% since the filing date. The other four are still setting up. Here is where the money is moving, and whether you can still get in.
1. Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM): The Surprise Pick
A gold streamer is rare territory for Elliott, and that is exactly why Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE:TFPM) belongs at the top of the list. The $6.43B royalty and streaming name is a pure play on gold at a time when the metal is repricing every commodity cycle assumption, and the stock has drifted lower even as its fundamentals have exploded.
Q1 FY26 landed with adjusted EPS of $0.45 against a $0.42 estimate, revenue of $146.99M up 78.7% year over year, and a realized gold price of $4,873 per ounce versus $2,860 a year earlier. Gross margin expanded to 72% and net income jumped 156.87% on record 30,166 GEOs sold. Our model pegs base case fair value at $35.95, a 31.73% upside from the $27.29 current price, with 73% of analysts bullish and zero bears. Screens as a Buy.
The stock has fallen 21.6% since the 13F reference date of March 31, 2026. Elliott’s paper P&L on TFPM is underwater at current prices. Next up is a name where Singer’s paper is already very much in the black.
2. Suncor Energy (SU): The Cash Machine Masquerading as a Miss
Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU | SU Price Prediction) is the integrated oil sands and refining giant that headline-scanning traders punished on a Q1 EPS miss and then quietly bought back. This is Elliott territory: a business printing cash while traders debate the wrong number.
Q1 FY26 EPS came in at $1.36 versus a $1.93 estimate, but adjusted operating earnings actually rose to $1.62B from $1.15B, and free cash flow surged 188.13% year over year to $2.05B. Management responded by lifting the monthly buyback pace from $275M to $350M, targeting nearly $4 billion in 2026 repurchases, over 30% higher than 2025. Our model reads Suncor as near fair value with 0.25% upside to a $62.02 base case. Screens as a Hold, but one that is paying shareholders to wait.
Elliott’s paper is up modestly here, with SU still down 7.61% from the March 31 filing reference even after a 60.35% one-year run. If Suncor is the boring compounder, the next name is the opposite: the one where the market has already sprinted past the activist thesis.
3. Phillips 66 (PSX): The Activist Heavyweight Running Hot
This is the obvious one. Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) is the flagship of Elliott’s current activist book, with the fund publicly pushing for a midstream separation. Refining margins are back, buybacks are flowing, and the crowd has piled in.
Q1 FY26 delivered adjusted EPS of $0.49 against a -$0.39 estimate, revenue of $33.00B up 8.2%, and refining margins of $10.11 per barrel versus $6.81 a year earlier. Buybacks hit $269M in Q1 and the annualized dividend was raised 7% to $1.265. The problem: the stock has ripped to $206.33, above the $198.44 analyst target, and our base case models a 20.27% drawdown to $164.52 over the next year. All three of our scenarios, bull, base, and bear, produce negative to flat one-year returns. Screens as a Sell into strength based on our modeled downside.
Elliott is sitting on gains of 11.29% since March 31 and 68.37% over one year. The activist thesis worked. The trade has aged. And the next name on Singer’s list has an even longer activist history behind it.
4. Southwest Airlines (LUV): The Turnaround Elliott Built
Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) is the case study for what Elliott activism produces. The fund reshaped the board, drove the commercial overhaul, and the Q1 numbers now show the model working, if fuel cooperates.
Q1 FY26 posted EPS of $0.45 versus $0.4739 consensus, revenue of $7.249B up 12.8%, and net income of $227M against a $149M loss a year earlier. RASM grew 11.2% YoY, roughly 60% of customers bought up to assigned or extra legroom seats, and Rapid Rewards enrollments jumped 37%. CEO Bob Jordan called it a “turning point for Southwest,” even as Q2 fuel guidance leapt to $4.10 to $4.15 per gallon. Our model puts fair value at $49.99, only 4.48% above the $47.85 current price. Screens as a Hold. The easy money on the activist trade has already been made.
LUV has already surged 32.1% since the March 31 filing reference. But the biggest Elliott win, and the punchline of this list, is not in the sky.
5. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): The Payoff
Elliott’s Chris Hsu now sits on the board of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE), confirming the activist stake and giving Singer a seat at the table for what has already become the trade of 2026. The Juniper Networks integration turned a legacy enterprise IT name into an AI infrastructure operator.
Q2 FY26 (reported June 1, 2026) obliterated guidance. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.79 against a $0.51 to $0.55 range, revenue was $10.68 billion up 40%, and Networking revenue exploded 148.2% to $2.69 billion. Free cash flow hit $915 million, non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 13.3% from 8.0%, and management hiked full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $3.35 to $3.45, up from a prior $2.30 to $2.50 range. CEO Antonio Neri framed it plainly: “HPE delivered an exceptional quarter with record-breaking revenue, higher-than-anticipated profitability, and increased free cash flow.”
The stock is up 90.1% since March 31, 2026 and 126.21% over one year. Yet our model still flags 16.09% base case upside to $53.31, the analyst target sits at $64.13, and composite sentiment reads bullish at 69.26. Screens as a Buy, and Elliott’s involvement is far from finished.
The Takeaway
Singer’s five-name book is a spectrum, not a basket. HPE and TFPM screen as buys with real modeled upside. Phillips 66 has run past the activist thesis and now screens as a sell. Suncor and Southwest are compounders that already delivered the easy dollars. If you are trailing Elliott into these names, the sequence matters more than the ticker list. The window on the two still-open trades is not going to stay open forever.
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