The 3 Ways Amazon’s Trainium Chips Erode Nvidia’s Dominance Into Early 2027

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) just closed earnings on opposite sides of the AI infrastructure trade. Amazon reported Q1 FY2026 on April 29, 2026, with AWS growing 28% and custom silicon crossing a $20 billion annual run rate. NVIDIA followed with Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.62 billion, up 85.2%. Trainium is the reason to compare them right now.

AWS Sprints, Blackwell Still Roars

AWS hit $37.59 billion in revenue, the fastest growth in fifteen quarters. CEO Andy Jassy told investors Amazon now has “over $225 billion in revenue commitments for Trainium”, anchored by Anthropic’s 5 GW deal and OpenAI’s 2 GW commitment starting 2027. Trainium2 is “largely sold out”, with 1.4 million chips already deployed powering most Bedrock inference.

NVIDIA’s Data Center revenue reached $75.25 billion, up 92%, with networking alone up 199%. Jensen Huang called this “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history”. Blackwell 300 is ramping and Vera Rubin is queued behind it. Non-GAAP gross margin held at 75.0%, roughly the mirror image of Amazon’s 50.3%.

The Three Ways Trainium Cracks NVIDIA’s Moat

First, the mass volume ramp is happening now. The 3nm Trainium 3 moved from select early customers in early 2026 into mass production, and AWS hiked its Q3 2026 server shipment targets by 20% to 30% to support the ramp. Jassy said Trainium 3 is “30% to 40% more price performant than Trainium2” and nearly fully subscribed.

Second, distribution is changing. Reports emerged in June 2026 that Amazon is in active talks to sell physical Trainium server racks directly to external, sovereign, and co-location data centers. That breaks the AWS-only wall Trainium has lived behind and puts it in NVIDIA’s direct sales lane.

Third, Trainium 4 lands next. The chip is designed to offer 3x the processing power of Trainium 3, is already heavily pre-ordered, and is scheduled for initial deployment in late 2026 to early 2027. Amazon frames the savings bluntly: “tens of billions of dollars of CapEx each year”.

The Rubin Ramp Will Decide 2027

Watch whether Vera Rubin arrives with pricing power intact, or whether hyperscalers use Trainium 4 leverage to negotiate harder. Amazon still plans to deploy 1 million or more NVIDIA GPUs starting in 2026, so this is a share shift, not a replacement. The mix worth watching is inference workloads migrating from GPU to Trainium inside Bedrock’s 125,000 customer base.

Why I Lean Amazon for the Next Eighteen Months

Amazon trades at a P/E of 30, the lowest in over a decade, while the chip business compounds at triple digits with anchor customers locked in. NVIDIA is the safer operating model at a 75.0% gross margin, but Polymarket traders see just a 5.8% chance NVDA closes above $220 today. For defensive AI exposure at a premium multiple, NVIDIA still works. For a re-rating catalyst tied to a specific product, Trainium 4 into early 2027 is the cleaner setup.

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