Meta (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) heads into its July 29 earnings report with its stock falling while the underlying business continues to accelerate. Shares have declined 7.87% over the past week and 9.68% year to date to $595.19.
With Meta trading at just 18x forward earnings, the recent pullback could offer an attractive entry point ahead of Q2 earnings.
Meta Trades at 18x Earnings Despite 33% Revenue Growth
Meta trades at an 18x forward P/E with an 82% gross margin, a 41.44% operating margin, and a 20.69% ROIC. Q1 revenue climbed 33.08% to $56.31 billion, ad impressions increased 19%, and average price per ad climbed 12%. Meanwhile, full-year 2025 free cash flow came in at $43.59 billion, funding $26.25 billion in buybacks alongside a $0.53 quarterly dividend.
Wall Street’s consensus price target sits at $826.01, implying 38.8% upside from the stock’s current price of $595.19. Right now, analysts assigned Meta 57 buy ratings, 6 holds, and zero sell ratings. Paying under 20x earnings for a business generating 20%-plus returns on invested capital feels attractive on a relative-value basis.
Meta Has Beaten Earnings 6 Quarters in a Row
Meta has beaten EPS estimates in six consecutive quarters, with the last miss dating all the way back to Q3 of 2022. Polymarket traders assign an 87.1% probability of another beat on July 29, and the full-chain put/call ratio sits at 0.43, with the July 31 expiry at just 0.30. Institutional positioning is decisively long into the release.
Meta Beats Alphabet on Growth
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) trades at a more expensive 25x forward P/E (vs Meta’s 18x), but Alphabet’s most recent quarterly revenue growth was 24% versus Meta’s 33%. There’s of course more to consider when comparing the two advertising giants, but Meta stock is cheaper on an earnings basis and is delivering higher top-line growth.
Can Meta Justify Up to $145 Billion in AI Spending?
The bear case is capex. Meta raised FY2026 capital spending guidance to $125 to $145 billion, sparking execution concerns. However, Meta’s Q1 operating cash flow of $32.23 billion, interest coverage ratio of 71.48x, and cash and securities of $81.2 billion give the business a cushion against the capex spend.
CFO Susan Li confirmed the company retains the flexibility to “bring it online more slowly or reduce our spending in future years” if returns lag. If Q2 results show that AI investments are strengthening ad performance without eroding margins, the recent pullback could prove to be a compelling buying opportunity.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks