SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) stock is sinking 5% Friday to $112.59, leaving the rocket maker 17% below its $135 June IPO price. The stock is sliding just hours before Starship attempts its 13th test flight tonight, a launch that could determine whether SpaceX’s costly pivot away from Falcon 9 pays off.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is falling harder, down 7% to $65.27, while AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is slipping 4% to $56.94. Neither company faces a company-specific catalyst today, and the selling looks more like a sympathy trade tied to SpaceX’s own troubles than a verdict on either business.
SpaceX’s Big Bet on Tonight’s Starship Test
SpaceX has reportedly stopped taking new Falcon 9 bookings for dedicated satellite launches beyond 2028 and isn’t accepting reservations for its Falcon 9 rideshare program. The company has also reportedly halted production of some non-reusable Falcon hardware, including the upper stage that carries cargo, while Falcon 9 continues to support certain NASA and U.S. Department of Defense missions.
Tonight marks Starship’s third launch attempt in nine days, following a July 16 engine abort and a weather scrub last Thursday, with the window opening at 6:45 p.m. EDT at Starbase, Texas. A successful flight would be the first real validation of the reusability plan underpinning SpaceX’s push to retire Falcon 9, while another setback would deepen doubts about that timeline.
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile Get Caught in the Downdraft
AST SpaceMobile raised $1.15 billion through convertible notes to fund growth and secure launch capacity, a move that underscores how dependent the company remains on SpaceX. SpaceX has launched most of AST SpaceMobile’s satellite fleet and is expected to carry its next batch, even though SpaceX’s own Starlink network competes with AST SpaceMobile in direct-to-cell service.
Rocket Lab stock, by contrast, could ultimately benefit from tighter Falcon 9 availability, since its own reusable Neutron rocket recently completed a key engine test and could attract customers if Starship faces further delays. AST SpaceMobile stock is essentially flat over the past year, up just 0.4%, while Rocket Lab stock remains up 42% over that same span even after today’s decline.
What Tonight’s Launch Needs to Go Right
Tonight’s flight will test whether SpaceX’s Super Heavy booster can complete a clean launch, stage separation, and a controlled return to an offshore landing point in the Gulf of Mexico. Starship itself needs to deploy 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites and complete its own controlled descent to a splashdown in the Indian Ocean, with several of the satellites carrying cameras to scan the heat shield during reentry.
Traders on Polymarket price an 81% chance of a successful launch tonight and a 72% chance of a controlled splashdown for Starship, odds that suggest confidence but hardly a sure thing. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale stated that “Starship becoming operational is the critical path to the SpaceX investment thesis,” a view that puts tonight’s test at the center of the bull case.
What to Watch Now
For investors who don’t want to pick a single winner among SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and AST SpaceMobile stock, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) offers diversified exposure to the space sector. The ETF is down just 1.5% today to $43.05, a milder decline that highlights the benefit of diversification, though the fund still carries concentration risk given its narrow focus on the space industry.
SpaceX stock appears to be the riskiest of the three names tonight, given its direct exposure to the test outcome, an approaching August 6 share lock-up expiration, and short interest that has reportedly grown to 32%. Rocket Lab stock and AST SpaceMobile stock face more indirect risk, since their declines today stem mainly from sentiment rather than any company-specific setback.
Given how much rides on a single rocket test, investors might choose to keep their position sizes modest across all three names until tonight’s outcome is clear. Investors can watch for whether Starship completes tonight’s flight and how SpaceX stock reacts heading into its August 4 earnings call and the August 6 lock-up expiration that follows.
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