SNDK reports Q4 FY26 tonight with consensus at $34.52 EPS and $8.39B revenue, already above management's own guidance range.
Polymarket traders assign a 98.5% probability of another beat after last quarter's 645% YoY Datacenter surge and 60% EPS surprise.
At 44x earnings and a $211B market cap, an in-line report risks multiple compression after SNDK's 500%-plus YTD run.
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That wraps up our initial coverage of SanDisk’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!
SanDisk produced $7.08 billion in free cash flow during the fiscal fourth quarter and $5.04 billion in adjusted free cash flow after accounting for payments and deposits related to its New Business Model agreements.
For the full fiscal year, adjusted free cash flow reached $8.74 billion, compared with just $238 million one year earlier. Cash and cash equivalents finished the year at $4.76 billion.
SanDisk’s board responded by authorizing an additional $14 billion share-repurchase program, bringing its total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion. The massive buyback reflects management’s belief that AI-driven growth in earnings and cash flow can prove durable.
Artificial intelligence demand is rapidly transforming SanDisk’s business. Data Center revenue reached $2.98 billion during the fiscal fourth quarter, more than doubling sequentially from $1.47 billion.
For the full fiscal year, Data Center revenue skyrocketed 437% to $5.15 billion as SanDisk shifted toward higher-value customers. Edge revenue also jumped 195% to $12.16 billion, while the Consumer segment grew a much slower 29%.
SanDisk has now signed five additional New Business Model agreements since its April earnings call, including three contracts with new customers and two expansions of existing deals.
The company has doubled its announced NBM agreement count to 10 in just a few months, strengthening the case that AI storage demand extends well beyond a single quarter.
SanDisk’s fiscal fourth-quarter results crushed Wall Street expectations, and management expects the momentum to continue into fiscal 2027.
The company guided for first-quarter revenue between $10.3-$10.8 billion, representing another 15% to 20% sequential increase from the fourth quarter’s $8.97 billion. SanDisk also expects adjusted EPS between $44 and $46, up from $39.25 during the latest quarter.
Adjusted gross margin is projected to be between 83% and 85%, remaining close to the extraordinary 84.6% achieved in Q4. Despite the strong outlook, SanDisk shares initially fell 5%, suggesting investors had already priced in another significant increase in guidance.
SanDisk just reported earnings, with shares initially falling 5% despite beating expectations. Here are the key numbers:
Quick Read:
SanDisk crushed expectations, beating revenue estimates by 7% and EPS expectations by 14%, but the stock still dropped following the release.
Revenue exploded 372% year over year and 51% sequentially, while EPS climbed 68% from the previous quarter.
Beyond the bull/bear debate, four wildcards aren’t fully priced in ahead of tonight’s report.
With SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) up 501.41% year-to-date and shares at $1,401.47, the setup is loaded.
With SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) reporting after the close and Polymarket odds now at 94.6% for a beat, here’s what to listen for on the call.
SanDisk reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings after the closing bell, with Wall Street expecting adjusted earnings of $34.52 per share on $8.39 billion in revenue.
The biggest questions surround NAND pricing, the company’s growing exposure to data centers, and execution on its NBM contracts. SanDisk’s Data Center revenue soared 645% year over year last quarter, placing the AI memory buildout at the center of tonight’s report.
Prediction-market traders are highly confident, with Polymarket assigning a 98.5% probability that SanDisk beats earnings expectations again.
A strong beat accompanied by a richer fiscal 2027 product mix and additional NBM contracts would strengthen the case that SanDisk has entered an era of structurally higher earnings power. However, guidance merely in-line with expectations could trigger multiple compression following the stock’s extraordinary run.
SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) reports Q4 FY2026 results today after the bell at 4:05 PM ET. Shares sit at $1,419.96 after a 501.41% year-to-date run, making tonight’s earnings report the highest-stakes report since the Western Digital separation.
Q3 FY26 marked what CEO David Goeckeler called “a fundamental inflection point.” Revenue landed at $5.95 billion, up 251% YoY, while non-GAAP EPS of $23.41 beat consensus by 59.67%.
Gross margin expanded to 78.4% from 22.5% a year earlier, powered by NAND pricing and a Datacenter mix shift. Free cash flow hit $2.99 billion, and the company retired $650 million in debt to reach a zero long-term debt balance sheet. However, shares are down 18.19% over the past month, signaling the bar has moved.
| Metric | Q4 FY26 Estimate | Company Guide |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.39B | $7.75B to $8.25B |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $34.52 | $30.00 to $33.00 |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | n/a | 79.0% to 81.0% |
The Street already sits above management’s own top-line and bottom-line ranges. Consensus embeds continued Datacenter mix leverage and further NAND ASP expansion, leaving little room for in-line results to satisfy investors.
Tonight, I’ll be watching to see whether Datacenter sustains its 233% sequential pace, because that segment now anchors the company’s structural earnings-power thesis. Analysts will also focus on how many of the five signed NBM agreements translate into revenue linearity and whether management adds more customers under firm financial commitments.
Gross margin cadence matters next. Guidance calls for 79.0% to 81.0%, and I want commentary on how pricing holds into FY27 given the structural NAND shortage narrative through 2028. Consumer weakness is worth tracking as well after a 10% sequential decline last quarter.
Management tone on Kioxia, BiCS8 ramp, and share repurchase pacing will shape the post-report reaction. Reddit sentiment flipped bullish only recently, with the “SNDK Holders – we’re so back!!” post gaining traction, while options traders lean neutral with a 0.79 put/call ratio.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 | +59.67% | +5.8% | +31.62% | +54.3% |
| Q2 FY26 | +74.97% | +15.44% | +3.77% | +3.96% |
| Q1 FY26 | +37.08% | +11.89% | +6.13% | -2.76% |
| Q4 FY25 | +866.67% | +2.2% | +4.11% | +110.98% |
On average, shares moved +11.24% in the week following earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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