Polymarket Prices a 70% Probability That Airbnb Misses Earnings Tonight

That wraps up our initial coverage of Airbnb’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Overall Grade: A-

Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) ended a three-quarter miss streak with a beat, raised full-year guidance, and delivered accelerating cash flow.

Operating leverage improved through AI, which resolved 45% of support issues. First-time bookers grew 11%, a four-year high, while Experiences supply expanded 80% YoY.

The raised outlook validates the growth premium; insider selling and a Q2 GBV miss at the $27.6B Polymarket threshold offset strength against a stock trading at $150.34.

Airbnb’s gross booking value increased 16% year over year to $27.2 billion during the second quarter, while Nights and Seats Booked grew 10% and accelerated from the first quarter.

Demand also accelerated across several of its largest markets, including the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

Airbnb’s adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 35%, reflecting stronger revenue growth and operating leverage. Net income reached $816 million, and adjusted EBITDA jumped 21% to $1.3 billion.

Airbnb’s AI investments are beginning to deliver measurable cost savings. Nearly 45% of issues initiated through the company’s AI assistant are now resolved without a human agent, helping reduce customer-support costs per booking by around 16% year over year.

The assistant is available in more than 50 languages, with an AI-powered voice assistant scheduled to launch later this year.

Airbnb also said its AI-native development strategy has cut the time from concept to delivery by as much as 60%, while the number of features and improvements shipped increased nearly 80% from last year.

Airbnb raised its full-year 2026 outlook after second-quarter revenue increased 17% year over year to $3.6 billion.

The company now expects annual revenue growth of at least the mid-teens, supported by accelerating bookings, new product initiatives, and strong travel demand across every region.

Management also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin forecast to at least 35.5%. For the third quarter, Airbnb expects revenue between $4.69 billion and $4.77 billion, representing growth of 15% to 17%.

Airbnb just reported earnings, with shares initially up 3% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $3.608 billion vs. $3.58 billion expected
• Adjusted EPS: $1.37 vs. $1.25 expected

Quick Read:

Airbnb beat revenue estimates by roughly 1%, while adjusted EPS came in 10% ahead of expectations.

Revenue increased 17% year over year, while EPS climbed 33%, ending the company’s streak of three consecutive earnings misses.

With minutes to go before Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) reports, here is how the crowd is positioned on Polymarket.

What the Crowd Expects

• Beat odds: 30% Yes vs. 70% No, with $2,507.90 in total volume.
• Same-day direction: 63.1% lean Down, only 36.9% Up.
• Week-of price cluster: highest odds sit at $148 (78%) and $158 (75%), framing a tight post-report range.
• GBV bar: 42.5% odds of clearing $27.6B.

How Reliable Is the Crowd?

Airbnb prediction markets carry a 30% correct rate across 10 resolved markets, though the average accuracy score is 0.783.

Notably, bettors nailed the May 2026 miss call, giving tonight’s 70% miss lean added credibility.

Bull Case

• Revenue momentum is accelerating, with Q1 posting 17.87% YoY growth and management raising the full-year outlook to low-to-mid teens.
• AI leverage is real: cost-per-booking down ~10% YoY and the AI Assistant handling over 40% of support issues.
• World Cup supply of 100,000+ new homes and India origin nights up ~50% support a Q3 setup.
• Capital return remains aggressive, with $1.1B repurchased in Q1 and $4.5B remaining.

Bear Case

• Three straight EPS misses of -14.13%, -15.15%, and -4.75% have eroded bottom-line credibility.
• Q1 free cash flow fell 4.75% YoY on Reserve Now, Pay Later timing.
• Insiders sold heavily with zero buying across CEO, CFO, and co-founders.
• Polymarket assigns a 70% probability of an earnings miss.

With about 30 minutes until the earnings release, Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) trades at $151.10, up 12.36% YTD.

Key KPIs to Watch

• Nights and Seats Booked (Q1 report: 156.2 million, +9% YoY)
• ADR trajectory versus Q1’s $187
• GBV, where Polymarket assigns 94% odds of clearing $26.4B
• Adjusted EBITDA margin, guided higher YoY

What Moves the Stock

A revenue result above $3.60 billion paired with a clean EPS beat and reaffirmed 35% full-year EBITDA margin could unlock the analyst target of $158.35. A fourth straight miss risks retesting the $140 zone flagged by prediction markets.

Options straddle the report: Aug 7 contracts show 2,199 calls versus 2,181 puts. History favors caution, as the three prior misses averaged a -1.28% one-week move.

With Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) reporting after the close, here’s what to listen for on the call.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

1. Why has EPS missed by -14.13%, -15.65%, and -4.75% despite revenue beats?
2. Is the 13.6% take rate stabilizing after the FX-driven decline?
3. How much Q3 lift from the 100,000+ new World Cup homes?
4. Will Reserve Now, Pay Later remain a Q2 FCF drag?
5. Path to holding 35%+ adjusted EBITDA margin amid ramping AI spend?

Buzzwords to Track

Prediction markets assign 93.5% odds of 10+ AI mentions and 90.5% for World Cup. Also listen for “boutique,” “Experiences,” and “single fee.”

Red Flags

• Another 100bps Middle East nights headwind extending into H2
• Full-year margin guide trimmed below 35%
• Take rate slipping further