If Wall Street woke up tomorrow to a repeat of 1987’s Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would shed roughly 12,152 points in a single session, based on Wednesday’s close of 53,770.27. That’s a thought experiment until you consider that “Big Short” investor Michael Burry just told his subscribers he thinks a decline on that scale is a real possibility. With the Dow near record territory, one of Wall Street’s most-watched bears is reaching for the 1987 analog.
The Math, Explained
The figure is illustrative. Apply Black Monday’s 22.6% single-day decline to the Dow’s Aug. 12, 2026 close of 53,770.27, and the result works out to roughly 12,152 points wiped off in one session. Today was quiet: the Dow closed down 21.58 points (-0.04%), with cooler-than-expected July CPI data (3.4% year-on-year) in focus. The Dow first closed above 54,000 on Aug. 4, 2026 and printed a record intraday high of 54,744.33 on Aug. 5, 2026. Treat 12,152 as a moving target tied to Wednesday’s close.
What Burry Actually Said
The source is Burry’s Substack post, Trading Post – August 4, 2026: My Options, published Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026. Two core lines have been reported consistently: “I still believe we may be near a major top” and “I also think there is a possibility of a decline like 1987.”. The post is subscriber-only, so phrasing varies slightly between outlets. Burry is describing a possibility. Our earlier take on why he is refusing to cover is available here, and a prior scenario piece on a Black Monday-style drop lives here.
Why He’s Saying It Now
Burry cited data showing the S&P 500 had surged 5% over four days to a new record, something that had only happened three other times since 1999. His argument: rising prices and falling volatility pull leveraged, momentum-driven money in right before a reversal. The VIX sits at 15.28, in the low-volatility complacency zone. The call comes despite strong Big Tech earnings in late July and early August. Burry’s skepticism targets the durability of AI capital-expenditure demand.
His Actual Positioning
Burry disclosed short positions against NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), the iShares Semiconductor ETF, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), among others. All of those shorts remain profitable except his Nvidia position. In an Aug. 5, 2026 X post, he added: “There is a reason $NVDA’s 5 year credit default swaps are going parabolic,” noting bets on Nvidia defaulting on its debt had roughly doubled over two months. Palantir trades at a trailing P/E of 150, Tesla at a trailing P/E of 305, and Micron has run 614.5% over the past year. Nvidia’s Q1 FY27 data center revenue grew 92% year-over-year to $75.25B, per its SEC filing, which is exactly the demand curve Burry expects to disappoint.
Historical Context on 1987
On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508.32 points, or 22.6%, in a single session, still the worst one-day percentage decline in the index’s history and worse than the 12.8% single-day drop in 1929’s Black Thursday. It closed at 2,246.74 the Friday before and 1,738.74 that Monday. The broader crash erased roughly $500 billion in the U.S. and an estimated $1.7 trillion globally within hours. The 22.6% figure is a single-day move, which is what the 12,152 number represents. The wider 1987 event took the S&P 500 down more than 30% peak-to-trough and required roughly two years to fully recover. Burry’s comparison points at shock and velocity.
The Kicker
Record highs and a “I also think there is a possibility of a decline like 1987.” warning from Wall Street’s most-watched bear coexist this week. The Dow is up 11.77% year-to-date, the VIX is asleep, and Burry is still short. Investors need not agree with him to note that complacency, momentum, and AI-capex faith are all measurable right now.
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