Shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) are down about 4% midday Friday, trading near $137.14 after opening at $141.29. The slide dents but does not erase a big weekly advance. SPCX is still up roughly 23% over the past five sessions.
No Confirmed Catalyst, but Plenty of Overhangs
There is no confirmed company-specific headline driving today’s move. The most likely explanations are ongoing digestion of the early-August share unlock supply, profit-taking after a sharp bounce off the lows, and the general volatility of a newly public, heavily debated name. Reporting on Aug 11 flagged SPCX slipping below its IPO price as a 320 million-share unlock neared, and CNBC reported on Aug 12 that SpaceX short sellers were “running out of bullets” as the stock rebounded more than 40% off its low. That round trip is still the dominant story.
Fundamentally, the setup is strong. Q2 revenue landed at $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, with the AI segment printing $2.6 billion, up 247% YoY and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, per the company’s SEC filing. Elon Musk told investors “The $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark. That’s what we’d achieve if we basically did nothing.” Prediction markets remain skeptical near term: Polymarket traders assigned a 94% probability to SPCX finishing down today.
Other Volatile Names Making Moves
AI infrastructure names are moving in different directions, which is the notable read-through. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) is up about 5% today near $268.32, extending a 34% weekly gain after a Q2 report with revenue up 454% YoY and a raised year-end contracted power target of 5 gigawatts. CEO Arkady Volozh told investors “We could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to. But we are not doing this.”
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), meanwhile, is trading slightly lower, off about 1% to $105.10, but is still up 25% for the week after reporting Q2 revenue of $2.6 billion (up 112% YoY) and a backlog of $104 billion. CEO Michael Intrator said “CoreWeave enters the second half of the year with more momentum than at any point in our history.”
All three companies are pursuing aggressive compute buildouts. SpaceX is targeting over 2 gigawatts of compute by year-end with capex of $18.4 billion in Q2 alone. CoreWeave raised its active power target to more than 1.85 gigawatts for 2026. Nebius is building toward more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity per year starting in 2027. The theme is intact. The market is no longer treating these names as one basket.
What to Watch
SPCX remains a newly listed, highly volatile stock with unresolved unlock supply and a sharply divided analyst base. The sell-side skews bullish, with 27 buys, 6 holds, and 2 sells and an average target of $235.69. Reddit sentiment has cooled from bullish highs into bearish territory this week. I’d keep an eye on whether SPCX holds the mid-$130s into the close. That level is the pivot separating this week’s advance from a full round trip back to unlock-era prices.
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