Bruce Berkowitz’s Fairholme Capital disclosed in its Q2 2026 13F filing that 18,182,367 shares of St. Joe Company, valued at $1,138,761,645, represent 76.43% of the fund’s portfolio as of June 30, 2026. That is the entire portfolio. Even for a conviction-driven value manager, parking three-quarters of a fund in one Northwest Florida land developer is extraordinary, and it deserves scrutiny before any retail investor decides Berkowitz has done the homework for them.
The filing also showed nuance. Fairholme trimmed 1,027,800 JOE shares in the quarter, a small reduction against the core position. Alongside the trim, the fund opened three contrarian entries: Pfizer (NYSE:PFE | PFE Price Prediction) at 231,000 shares valued at $5,562,480, Campbell Soup at 116,500 shares valued at $2,594,455, and United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) at 23,800 shares valued at $2,558,500. Fairholme also added to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-B) and Progressive (NYSE:PGR), signaling alignment with established value names.
The JOE Thesis Is Working
St. Joe (NYSE:JOE) posted its highest Q2 revenue in 20 years, with Q2 2026 revenue of $158.80M up 23% year over year and net income of $40.50M up 37%. Every segment expanded margins: residential to 48% from 45%, hospitality to 42% from 39%, commercial to 65% from 57%. The company sits on roughly 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida with a residential pipeline exceeding 25,000 homesites, and it has quietly shrunk the float to 56,991,651 shares, the lowest count since 1997.
CEO Jorge Gonzalez framed the capital return this way: “For the second quarter of 2026, the Company allocated 43% of capital to stock repurchases, 31% to capital expenditures for growth, 14% to debt repayment, and 12% to dividends.” The stock has responded, rising 36.4% over the past year and 14.71% year to date through August 17, 2026. Berkowitz’s thesis, land compounding into cash flow as migration into Northwest Florida accelerates, is showing up in the numbers.
The Rotating Conviction Signal
The new buys are classic Berkowitz. Pfizer trades at a forward P/E near 9 with a 6.42% dividend yield. Campbell’s is down 25.85% over the past year. UPS trades at a forward P/E of roughly 14 with a 6.38% dividend yield. These are beaten-down cash generators in pharma, staples, and logistics, precisely the profile Fairholme buys when sentiment is bombed out.
Should Retail Follow?
JOE is a defensible long-term compounder, but Berkowitz’s 76% weighting reflects his risk tolerance, his cost basis, and his 20-year relationship with the asset. A retirement-focused investor replicating that concentration would be taking on single-name risk far beyond typical portfolio construction. JOE trades at a trailing P/E of 32 and price-to-book of 5.09, which is not statistically cheap. The land-bank optionality is real, but so is the 1.29 beta and hurricane exposure. Following Berkowitz into PFE or UPS at these yields is a more defensible starter move than mirroring his flagship bet. The signal worth taking is his sector rotation.
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