Jefferies equity analyst Corey Tarlowe told CNBC on Monday, August 17, that Target (NYSE:TGT | TGT Price Prediction) still offers more upside than Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT), even after Target’s 47% run in the past year. Both companies report earnings this week, with Target reporting before the market opens on August 19, while Walmart reports before the market opens on August 20.
Walmart carries a $917 billion market cap versus Target’s $70 billion, and Walmart trades at 38x forward P/E while Target trades at 17x. Lead equity analyst Corey Tarlowe’s bull case for Target today rests on three key pillars:
- A reasonable valuation multiple despite the rally
- A new management team executing on merchandising
- Margins sitting at a cyclical low
The Bull Case for Target
Tarlowe walked through the differences in what Walmart and Target sell: “Walmart is two-thirds food. Target’s about 50% what they call need-based, but only 25% is actually food and beverage,” he said. Target’s skew towards discretionary products has hurt Target in previous cycles, but now it could serve as a source of operating leverage on increased sales.
On product, Tarlowe pointed to Target’s refresh under CEO Michael Fiddelke: “50% of their assortment is going to be new this year. For back to school, they’ve added 1,500 new beauty items. They’ve added 3,000 new food and beverage items. This type of newness is actually translating into traffic.“
Jefferies’ preview flagged Target traffic up almost 4%, which lines up with Target’s own reported Q1 FY26 comp of +5.6% with traffic +4.4% disclosed in its Q1 earnings report, which also showed revenue of $25.44 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.71, and digital comp sales up 8.9%.
Target’s Margins Are at “Trough” Levels and Have Room to Improve
Tarlowe was blunt about the limits of Target’s competitive positioning: “They’re not going to beat Walmart on price. Nobody beats Walmart on price. But you have to be different, and you have to be unique, and you have to be new. And for Target, that’s working.”
The business could see substantial operating leverage from recent investments: “This year specifically, they’ve actually called out up to $2 billion of incremental investment… they’re in a penny-profit business. Their margins are razor thin today. They’re about 4%, which is on trough. And you’re putting a 20-times multiple on trough margins. We like to buy stocks when companies are at trough margins. Historically they’ve averaged close to 6%,“ Tarlowe said.
Walmart’s Bull Case
Tarlowe sees upside in Walmart too. “Despite Target’s substantial run, we actually think that there’s more opportunity. We think there’s more opportunity at both. But I’m highlighting Target specifically in light of the cheaper valuation and the ability for change, because you have new management and you have new product, you have new processes that they’re implementing,” he said.
Walmart’s flywheel continues to deliver. In Q1 FY27, the company posted revenue of $175.68 billion with U.S. comp sales up 4.1% ex-fuel, and it reiterated its FY27 outlook for adjusted EPS of $2.75 to $2.85.
What to Watch This Week
Tarlowe framed the consumer backdrop driving the traffic. “Traffic is up at a lot of the value-oriented retailers like Walmart, like Target. We published our preview last week, and we highlighted traffic growth at Target up almost 4%,” he said, noting fuel prices back above $4 per gallon nationally as a real pressure point on discretionary spend.
Walmart remains the dominant retailer, with unmatched pricing power and a growing advertising and marketplace business supporting its premium valuation. Target, however, offers the more dramatic turnaround opportunity. A refreshed assortment is already improving traffic, new management is changing how the company operates, and margins have room to recover from roughly 4% toward their historical 6% level.
This week’s earnings should reveal whether that recovery is strong enough to justify another leg higher after Target’s 47% rally in the past year.
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