Costco (NASDAQ: COST | COST Price Prediction) trades at $961.15, and our proprietary model sees moderate room to run. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Costco is $1,024.41 over the next 12 months, implying 6.58% upside.
Our recommendation is buy, with a 90% confidence level. What drives the call is a membership and digital engine Wall Street still treats as secondary.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $961.15 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $1,024.41 |
| Upside | 6.58% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Membership Fees Drive Growth
Costco is up 1.88% over the past week, 3.89% on the month, and 13.14% year to date.
The May Q3 report delivered EPS of $4.93 on revenue of $70.53 billion, up 11.58% year over year, with net income climbing 15.19%. Membership fee income hit $1.373 billion, up 10.7%, paid Executive memberships reached 41.2 million, and digitally enabled comparable sales jumped 21.5% as site traffic surged 37%.
Why Bulls See a Breakout
The bull case rests on a compounding engine. US and Canada renewal is 92.2%, worldwide renewal is 89.7%, and Executive members now drive 75% of sales. Management sees 30 plus net new warehouses annually, with China, Korea, Japan, and the UK identified as long runways.
Digitally enabled comps of 21.5%, AI-driven traffic growing at triple-digit rate, and a new Google Commerce Media and YouTube retail media partnership layer high-margin income on warehouse economics. Our bull-case scenario values the stock at $1,130.46, a 17.61% total return. The average sell-side target sits at $1,077.31 with 23 positive ratings versus 2 negative.
What Could Go Wrong
Valuation is the key risk. Costco trades at 48x trailing earnings and 42x forward, with a PEG of 5. Any deceleration in comps or membership growth could trigger multiple compression. Management flagged tariff impacts, resin inflation, memory-chip costs, and Middle East shipping risk.
Core-on-core margins slipped nine basis points as Costco reinvested in lower prices, a deliberate move designed to widen Costco’s value gap. Our bear-case path lands at $943.98, a modest 1.79% pullback.
How Costco Compares to Walmart and BJ’s Wholesale
Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is the most relevant scale comp. Walmart’s FY27 Q2 delivered adjusted EPS of $0.81 on revenue of $187.94 billion, and the stock trades at a trailing P/E near 39. Costco commands a materially higher multiple because renewal rates, Executive penetration, and digital comps outpace Sam’s Club.
BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) is the pure warehouse-club comp. It posted Q2 FY27 EPS of $1.36, a 16.52% beat, with membership fee income up 9.9% and FY26 EPS guidance of $4.60 to $4.80. BJ’s is executing, but its $12.19 billion market cap and smaller international runway make Costco’s premium defensible.
Membership Moat Anchors the Bull Case
The 24/7 Wall St. model rates Costco a buy with a price target of $1,024.41 at 90% confidence. The tipping factor is membership. High-margin recurring income compounding at double-digit rates, combined with a 92.2% renewal rate in the core market, is the closest thing retail offers to a subscription business.
The 200-day moving average sits at $959.29, a technical reference point for accumulation setups. Key signals to monitor include comparable traffic slipping below 2% or Executive penetration stalling.
Costco Price Prediction 2026 to 2030
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $987.92 |
| 2027 | $1,051.48 |
| 2028 | $1,112.91 |
| 2029 | $1,155.35 |
| 2030 | $1,237.97 |
These projections assume Costco continues executing on membership growth, international warehouse expansion, and digital acceleration. Significant upside or downside could result from tariff regime shifts, a China ramp faster than modeled, or compression in consumer-defensive multiples.
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