Marvell’s $12.2 Billion Google Deal Changes the Bull Case for MRVL Stock

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) just handed Alphabet a warrant that could turn Google into a top shareholder. The commercial agreement, disclosed August 19, gives Google the right to buy up to 58,970,907 Marvell shares at $206.58, or roughly $12.18 billion at the strike.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Marvell is $288.12 over the next 12 months, versus a current quote of $237.27, implying 21.43% upside. The model’s rating is buy with a confidence level of 90%.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Google Warrant Rewrites the AI Silicon Narrative

Marvell shares are up 9.3% over the past week, 21.71% in the past month, and 179.61% year to date, though the stock sits about 22% below its 52-week high of $329.80.

Q1 fiscal 2027 was the catalyst: revenue of $2.418 billion grew 27.57% year over year, Data Center revenue hit $1.8327 billion at 76% of the mix, and non-GAAP EPS printed $0.80.

The Google warrant covers AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, networking and memory-interface controllers, and near-memory computing tied to the TPU ecosystem, with a performance-based tranche linked to custom-product revenue through fiscal 2033. That endorses the custom XPU business CEO Matt Murphy has been building.

Why Bulls See a Path to $354

Management expects fiscal 2027 revenue near $11.5 billion and fiscal 2028 revenue near $16.5 billion, with custom revenue expected to more than double year over year in fiscal 2028 and top $10 billion in fiscal 2029.

Layer on 1.6T optics ramping, scale-out switching heading toward a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate, and the expanded NVIDIA partnership on NVLink Fusion. Our bull-case scenario points to $354.10 in 12 months, a 49.24% total return.

Risks Worth Watching

Customer concentration is real. Data Center is 76% of revenue, and hyperscalers control the roadmap. GAAP net income fell 80.61% year over year on a $331.8 million contingent-consideration charge, and stock-based comp rose to $207.6 million from $142.1 million.

Operating cash flow set a record at $638.8 million, up 91.89%. Reddit sentiment on wallstreetbets swung very bearish in mid-August. Our bear scenario lands at $218.24.

How Marvell Compares to Broadcom and NVIDIA

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the direct custom-ASIC competitor and incumbent on Google’s TPU. Broadcom trades at a forward P/E of 20 with quarterly revenue growth of 47.9%. Marvell’s forward P/E of 58 looks expensive on identical exposure, though Marvell’s smaller base gives it higher percentage torque from every new socket.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is now a Marvell partner on NVLink Fusion. NVIDIA trades at a forward P/E of 26 with quarterly revenue growth of 85.2%, a cleaner growth-adjusted multiple than Marvell’s.

Against this peer group, our 24/7 Wall St. price target looks reasonable. Marvell’s multiple is rich, but the Google warrant provides validation neither peer offers on the same terms.

Marvell Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $288.12 and buy rating reflect a 90% confidence read. The Google warrant turns a customer into an aligned equityholder and codifies Marvell’s role across storage, networking, memory, and inference silicon around TPUs. For investors willing to accept the premium multiple, that alignment is the core of the bull thesis.

Here is where our model projects Marvell could trade in the coming years, assuming current growth trajectories hold.

These projections assume Marvell executes on its custom-XPU roadmap and Google exercises meaningfully against the warrant. Significant upside or downside could result from hyperscaler capex trajectories or a shift in TPU supplier share.

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