TJX Just Dropped 11% in a Month. Is It Time to Sell?

TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX | TJX Price Prediction) stock is down 11% over the past month to $137.50, even after the off-price retailer delivered a beat-and-raise second quarter. The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 2% over the same month to $88.53, which reframes the entire story. The decline belongs to TJX specifically.

Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) stock is down 0.5% over the past month to $237.59, essentially unchanged, while TJX Companies stock has sold off hard. TJX stock was down 8% year to date through Tuesday’s close, and Ross Stores stock was up 34% over the same span. Two off-price retailers running the same playbook diverged sharply.

The title asks whether it’s time to sell TJX stock. The answer sits inside the split between what the business delivered and what the multiple did in response, so let’s walk through both.

A Beat-and-Raise the Market Ignored

TJX reported Q2 FY2027 results on August 19. TJX’s consolidated comparable sales rose 4%, described as above plan, and the company raised its full-year adjusted diluted EPS guide to $5.15 to $5.20. TJX’s adjusted pretax profit margin came in at 11.9%, up 50 basis points year over year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.22 topped the $1.19 consensus.

Segment splits explain part of the market’s discomfort. HomeGoods comps rose 7%, TJX International rose 7%, and TJX Canada rose 6%, while Marmaxx, the largest segment, delivered only a 1% comp, below management’s expectations. CEO Ernie Herrman called the Marmaxx miss “self-inflicted” and pointed to merchandise mix and store allocation.

Multiple analysts cut forecasts on TJX stock after the report, and Jefferies downgraded the name. Analyst commentary since has centered on margin durability and on Marmaxx execution risk. TJX stock declined into that shift in sentiment.

Ross Stores Is Winning the Same Game

Ross delivered a 10% comparable-sales increase in Q2 2026, its second consecutive double-digit comp, and raised full-year EPS guidance to $8.61 to $8.77. CEO Jim Conroy said transaction growth drove the quarter, with new customers, lapsed customers, and existing shoppers all contributing to broad-based strength. Conroy described the customer key performance indicators (KPIs) as “extremely solid” and said every major merchandise category was positive.

Ross stock trades at a trailing P/E of 29x, and TJX stock at 26x, so the multiple gap is modest. The performance gap is wide. Ross Stores stock was up 34% year to date through Tuesday’s close, while TJX stock was down 8% over the same stretch. Capital stayed inside off-price retail and picked the other name.

That’s a relative-performance problem, and it’s the harder one to solve. If Marmaxx normalizes and margins hold, the multiple discount can close. Should Ross Stores keep posting double-digit comps, investors have a live alternative inside the same category.

A Broader Signal Across Retail

Macy’s (NYSE:M) stock is down 3% over the past month, while Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) stock is down 0.6% over the past month. Macy’s stock was up 4% year to date through Tuesday’s close, and Kohl’s stock was down 12% over the same stretch.

Kohl’s raised its guidance today, lifting the full-year adjusted EPS range to $1.80 to $2.40, and its stock still didn’t rally. 24/7 Wall St. has covered that report separately. Retail names are not being rewarded for guidance raises right now, which fits TJX stock’s decline into a wider retail pattern even though its magnitude is company-specific.

What to Watch Next

The sell case for TJX stock rests on the market’s forward view of margin durability. TJX’s comparable sales beat plan, margins expanded, and management raised its outlook and its long-term store target to 7,500 units. Selling after an 11% month means selling multiple compression on a quarter that delivered.

The case for trimming TJX stock is real. Analysts have moved against the name, Ross is materially outperforming, and management flagged that Marmaxx improvement may extend into the holiday selling season. Investors may want to check for whether Marmaxx’s early Q3 trend holds, which is the single most important variable in the story.

Position sizing is the appropriate answer for TJX stock. A modest holding keeps investors exposed to the beat-and-raise thesis and to a potential multiple recovery, and it also acknowledges the relative-performance signal Ross is sending. Cutting to zero after the beat overstates the damage, and staying overweight ignores the analyst reset. Somewhere between those two is where their exposure belongs.

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