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Live: Will Ross Crush Q2 Earnings Tonight After Its Record Q1?
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Quick Read
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Ross Stores (ROST) reports Q2 FY26 tonight, with guidance calling for EPS in the range of $1.85 to $1.93, following a Q1 that shattered estimates by 17% and delivered the chain's best comps in 40 years.
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Tariff commentary is a key wildcard as Ross excluded potential refunds from forward guidance while consumer sentiment sits at a fragile 49.5.
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CEO Jim Conroy hinted at 'very solid comps' for the back half, testing whether Q1's record performance signals a structural shift or a one-time surge.
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We expect Ross Stores to release Q2 earnings shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.
Ross Stores Faces a High Bar Tonight After Its Record Q1
Live
Ross Stores reports fiscal second-quarter results today at 4:00 PM ET, with management forecasting earnings of $1.85-$1.93 per share and comparable-store sales growth of 6-7%.
Those numbers would normally represent an impressive quarter, but Ross is coming off a record 17% comparable-sales increase in Q1.
Tonight’s report will show whether that performance marked a temporary surge or the beginning of a structural improvement under CEO Jim Conroy.
Ross has become one of Wall Street’s highest-conviction off-price retailers, with shares up 101.48% over five years and analysts carrying an average price target of $256.06.
Another quarter of strong traffic and margin expansion would strengthen the bull case. Investors will also be watching tariff pressures and any signs that weak consumer sentiment is affecting demand heading into the second half of the year.
Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST | ROST Price Prediction) is expected to report Q2 FY26 results today right after the market closes at 4:00 PM ET. The off-price retail chain has high expectations for tonight following a record first quarter and a fresh full-year guidance raise from CEO Jim Conroy.
Riding a Historic Comp Wave
Ross’s first quarter delivered the strongest comp growth in the company’s 40-year history, with EPS of $2.02 beating consensus by 17.41%. Revenue climbed 20.57% to $6.01 billion, and operating margin expanded 120 basis points to 13.4%.
Store traffic drove the beat, with double-digit customer-count gains across income levels, ethnicities, and age groups. CEO Conroy called the momentum “durable,” though he flagged tax refunds and pent-up demand as partial contributors. The stock has responded, moving up 27.31% year-to-date and 56.70% over one year to $229.61.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q2 FY26 Guide | YoY Change | FY26 Guide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | +9% to +11% | +9% to +11% | Comp +6% to +7% |
| EPS | $1.85 to $1.93 | +19% to +24% | $7.50 to $7.74 |
Tonight’s Q2 setup reflects meaningful deceleration from Q1’s 17% comp, though the guided range still tops Ross’s long-term goal of 3-4% annual same-store sales growth. Operating margin guidance of 12.8% to 13.0% versus 11.5% last year leans on merchandise margin gains and the anniversary of tariff-related ticketing costs.
What I’ll Be Watching Tonight
Tonight, I’ll be watching whether double-digit traffic holds, since new customers drove Q1’s transaction growth while units per transaction were flat. Any softening in traffic could reveal demand elasticity.
Analysts will also be watching merchandise margin, which expanded 85 basis points last quarter. Guidance assumes continued benefit plus distribution leverage as Ross anniversaries its Arizona facility, though elevated fuel prices could pressure freight.
I’ll also track tariff commentary closely. Ross excluded potential tariff refunds from forward guidance, and this quarter marks the end of last year’s tariff-cost step-up.
Store growth and buyback cadence are also worth reading into. Ross plans 47 openings this quarter and remains on track to repurchase $1.275 billion in FY26.
Finally, I’ll watch how CEO Conroy frames the back half of the year. He hinted at “maybe not a 17, but very solid comps” for the balance of the year.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 | $2.02 | $1.7204 | +17.41% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.00 | $1.85 | +8.11% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.58 | $1.4247 | +10.9% |
| Q2 FY25 | $1.56 | $1.5383 | +1.41% |
Ross has beaten consensus EPS in four straight quarters, with the magnitude widening into 2026.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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