Target Just Proved the Turnaround Is Real. Here’s What Comes Next.
Target just posted its strongest quarter in years, and shares have already surged 78% in 2025, yet Wall Street still refuses to turn bullish. Here is why that skepticism could be the biggest opportunity hiding in plain sight.
Target (NYSE:TGT | TGT Price Prediction) finally gave shareholders something to cheer about. Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue grew 5.27% year over year, comparable sales rose 3.8%, and traffic climbed 3.6% after multiple quarters of declines.
Shares are up 78.51% year to date, yet the stock still trades below its 2021 highs. CEO Michael Fiddelke told investors the turnaround is “just getting started.” Can this run push TGT to $200 by 2027? Here is the math.
Why the Rally Could Still Stall From Here
TGT has already ripped. Shares gained 25.14% in the past month and 12.5% in the past week alone, closing near the 52-week high of $170.75. The stock gave back 3.84% in the most recent session, a reminder that easy money after an earnings pop is rarely truly easy.
Over five years, TGT is still down 20.91%, and the $1.65 per share tariff refund benefit flattered Q2 results. Beta of 0.97 suggests limited help from a beta-driven melt-up. Home and apparel, two big segments, remain “not where it needs to be” in management’s own words.
Wall Street Skeptical While Our Model Sees 10% Upside
The Street’s average price target sits at $161.62, essentially below today’s $163.36. Ratings break down as 2 strong buy, 10 buy, 23 hold, 0 sell, and 3 strong sell. Only 32% of analysts are bullish.
Our internal model, running high confidence at 0.9, sees a base case of $180.42 (upside of 10.3%), an optimistic case of $188.60, and a bearish case of $148.22. Analysts have been slow to update after four straight EPS beats, setting up consensus targets to play catch-up.
Path to $200 Per Share
Reaching $200 from today’s price of $163.36 would require a gain of 22.4%. With forward EPS of $8.94, $200 implies a forward P/E of 22x. Our base case of $180.42 already implies 20x, meaning $200 requires roughly 2.9x of additional multiple expansion.
Achievable if the turnaround narrative holds. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $9.90 to $10.90 and net sales growth to approximately 5%. Digital comparable sales grew 8.7%, and non-merchandise revenue (Roundel, Target Circle 360, Target+) grew over 20%.
Fiddelke said results give management “increasing confidence that the investments we continue to make… will support continued growth on both our top and bottom line.” Multiple financial outlets have declared the turnaround real. Primary risk: home and apparel remain drags that could reset expectations if progress stalls.
Current Valuation in Context
At $163.36, TGT trades at a forward P/E of 18x on $8.94 forward EPS. That is a reasonable multiple for a Dividend King with reaccelerating comps. Shares sit just below the 52-week high of $170.75 and well above the 52-week low of $81.20.
Over ten years, TGT has returned 226.45%. If EPS scales toward the high end of guidance, today’s multiple looks conservative for a business finally showing traffic-driven growth.
Is $200 Realistic? My Verdict
Reaching $200 requires a gain of 22.4% from here. It is realistic but not automatic.
Three things need to go right: home and apparel need to stabilize, digital and same-day delivery need to keep growing north of 25%, and management needs to resume buybacks against the $8.3 billion remaining authorization. A consumer slowdown that stalls the traffic recovery just as expectations reset higher derails it. We’ve outlined the blueprint for how Target could reach $200 in 2027.
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial copywriter who loves to read and write about stocks. She believes in buying and holding for long term gains. Her knowledge of words and numbers helps her write clear stock analysis. She has contributed to several publications, including the Joy Wallet, Benzinga, The Motley Fool and InvestorPlace.
