This Will be Eli Lilly’s Price in 2027 And Morgan Stanley Agrees

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) just delivered one of the cleanest beat-and-raise quarters I have seen from a mega-cap pharma in years. Revenue jumped 47.67% to $22.97 billion, EPS came in at $8.38 versus the $6.5845 consensus, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $85 to $87 billion.

Shares are up 9.23% year to date, well behind the fundamentals. So can Lilly reach $1,750 by August 2027? Let’s run the math.

Why Lilly Shares Are Stuck Despite a Blowout Quarter

The disconnect is real. Revenue growth is running near 50%, but the stock is down 3.32% over the past week and 2.52% over the past month.

Two things are weighing on sentiment. First, $2.78 billion in Q2 IPR&D charges from four acquisitions muddied the reported earnings picture and pushed the effective tax rate to 23.3%.

Second, realized prices fell roughly 13%, with U.S. prices down about 9% excluding rebates. Add a beta of just 0.506, and you get a stock that grinds rather than sprints. Insiders have also been net sellers across 13 recent transactions. The fundamentals are intact. Just noise smothering a great earnings report.

Wall Street Is Bullish, But Its Targets Look Late

The consensus analyst target sits at $1,276.96, with 5 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. That is 79% bullish. Post-quarter, Morgan Stanley raised its target to $1,419 from $1,347 with an Overweight rating, BMO’s Evan Seigerman went to $1,400 from $1,300, and Wells Fargo’s Mohit Bansal moved to $1,330 from $1,280.

Our own base case model targets $1,430.26 for 22.26% upside, with a bull case at $1,639.16 and confidence at 90%. My view: analysts are anchored to pricing pressure and missing volume. Q2 volume grew 60%. That is the story.

The Path to $1,750 Per Share

Reaching $1,750 from today’s price of $1,169.86 would require a gain of 49.6%. With forward EPS of $38.14, a price of $1,750 implies a forward P/E of 46x. Our base case of $1,430.26 already implies 37x, meaning the bold target requires roughly 8.7x of additional multiple expansion. Achievable? Earnings are compounding fast enough to compress that multiple naturally.

Quarterly earnings growth is running at 169.9% year over year, and our 247Factor adjustment came in at 1.132, boosted by 79% bullish analyst sentiment and a healthcare sector momentum multiplier of 1.1.

Catalysts stack up: retatrutide’s BLA submission is planned for Q1 2027, Mounjaro international revenue grew 172% on the China NRDL addition, and CEO David Ricks said “Lilly’s future, after 150 years, has never been brighter.”

The risk: any retatrutide clinical setback or an aggressive Medicare pricing action could reset the multiple lower fast.

Where Lilly Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power

At $1,169.86, Lilly trades at roughly 31x forward EPS of $38.14. That is below its trailing P/E of 40x and cheap for a franchise growing revenue near 50% with 85.8% gross margins.

Shares sit 2% off the 52-week high of $1,249.45 and well above the 52-week low of $619.40. Over ten years, the stock has returned 1,585.44%. Nothing about the current setup screams overvalued.

Is $1,750 Realistic? My Verdict

Reaching $1,750 by August 2027 requires a 49.6% gain from here. Realistic? A stretch, but plausible.

Three things need to go right: retatrutide’s Q1 2027 BLA must clear on schedule, Zepbound and Mounjaro need to sustain $14.87 billion-plus combined quarterly runs, and Foundayo’s oral GLP-1 launch has to broaden the obesity market rather than cannibalize the injectables. A single retatrutide safety signal would derail the entire thesis. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how Eli Lilly could reach $1,750 in 2027.

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