This Thesis for Marvell Technology Keeps Me Accumulating Amid Tailwinds
A post-earnings drop handed one investor a reason to buy more Marvell Technology, not sell it, and a Google warrant that binds a hyperscaler to shareholder returns is only part of why he keeps hitting the buy button.
I keep hitting the buy button on Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction), and last Thursday’s post-earnings drop of -10.28% gave me another window to add. I own this stock because it sits at the intersection of two irreversible build-outs: custom AI accelerators and the optical fabric connecting them. Every quarter the numbers validate why I refuse to trim.
Data Center Numbers That Keep Pulling Me Back
Data Center revenue hit $2.1715 billion in Q2 FY27, up 46% year over year, and now sits at 79% of total revenue versus 74% a year earlier. Total revenue landed at $2.739 billion, up 36.55%. Management sees fiscal 2027 revenue growing about 45% to roughly $12 billion and fiscal 2028 revenue growing about 50% year over year. CEO Matt Murphy said “AI-related bookings remain exceptionally robust”. When a company raises the outlook on a business already growing this fast, I add.
Google Warrant Changes the Math
Marvell disclosed an expanded custom silicon agreement with Google that includes a warrant allowing Google to acquire up to 7% of Marvell’s shares tied to revenue milestones. A hyperscaler is formally aligning its economics with mine. Custom revenue is expected to more than double year over year in fiscal 2028, and one analyst on the call framed the deal as $120 billion in cumulative revenue over six years at full milestone achievement, a scale Murphy did not push back on. The Celestial AI photonic fabric technology adds to the same story, and the whole trade sits inside a broader data-center buildout we mapped out in a free report on seven non-chipmaker AI infrastructure suppliers.
Margins, Cash, and Buybacks
Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 36.6% from 34.8%, with management guiding into the 38% to 40% long-term range by Q4. Cash sits at $3.93 billion, up 221.2% year over year. The company repurchased $200 million of stock in Q2, on top of $2.04 billion across FY26. Operating cash flow of $605.5 million funds the buyback machine, and net debt to EBITDA of 0.27 times shows the $4.963 billion long-term debt load is manageable.
Why Not Reach for NVIDIA or Broadcom Instead
The two names I could buy instead are NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). Both are excellent businesses. Marvell offers what I want: a concentrated position where 79% of revenue already flows from the data center and a hyperscaler holds a warrant on up to 7% of the shares. Marvell’s forward P/E of 60 pairs with data center growth of 46% year over year and a custom business expected to more than double next year. That is the pure-play exposure I want.
Risk I Refuse to Hand-Wave
Customer concentration is real. A handful of hyperscalers drive the bulk of growth, and any could pull volume in-house or shift to a rival. Add trade restrictions on Chinese customers and tariff uncertainty, and the concentration cuts both ways. What keeps me buying is that the Google warrant structurally binds the biggest concentration risk to my side of the table, and demand is broad-based across interconnect, switching, custom silicon, optical DSPs, and CXL memory expansion.
What Keeps My Buy Button Active
Shares are down 8.61% over the past week and still up 155.27% year to date at $216.62. With the Investor Day on October 6, 2026 set to detail custom revenue through fiscal 2029, I would rather be early than clever. I keep buying Marvell because the customer, the technology, and the balance sheet are all pointed the same direction, and the market handed me another discount to prove it.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
