Nvidia Isn’t the Only Way to Win the AI Chip Race
Marvell has quietly turned itself into one of the most aggressive bets on AI infrastructure without selling a single GPU, and a surprise $12.2 billion disclosure just changed how Wall Street thinks about its ceiling.
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) has quietly become one of the most levered plays on AI infrastructure outside of NVIDIA, and after a 233.59% one-year run, shareholders want to know if there is still room to work.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Marvell is $279.18, implying 17.78% upside from a current price of $237.04. We rate the stock a buy with 90% confidence, anchored on accelerating data center revenue and a raised fiscal 2028 outlook.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $237.04 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $279.18 |
| Upside | 17.78% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
How Marvell Got Here: A Google Warrant and a $12.2B Signal
Marvell is up 179.34% year to date and 12.35% over the past month, though the stock sits 20% below its 52-week high of $329.80. Recent news flow has been decisive. On August 19, Marvell rose 13% on a $12.2 billion Google warrant disclosure, reinforcing the custom-silicon narrative.
Q1 FY27 revenue landed at $2.418 billion, up 27.57% year over year, with data center now 76% of total revenue. CEO Matt Murphy told investors: “We are seeing exceptional AI-related bookings.”
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead
Management raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to nearly $11.5 billion and fiscal 2028 to approximately $16.5 billion, a $1.5 billion raise versus prior.
Interconnect revenue is now expected to grow more than 70% in fiscal 2027, scale-out switch revenue should exceed $600 million, and Murphy reaffirmed a target of over $10 billion in custom silicon revenue in fiscal 2029.
Our bull-case scenario points to $353.06, roughly 48.94% upside, if scale-up optics ramp materially in FY28. Wells Fargo raised the firm’s price target on Marvell to $310 from $240 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
What Could Go Wrong
Concentration is real. Data center is 76% of the mix, hyperscalers dominate the customer base, and Q1 net income fell sharply due to a contingent consideration charge tied to Celestial AI. Bulls will note that charge is non-cash and one-time, and non-GAAP EPS still beat at $0.80.
Still, if hyperscalers accelerate their own in-house silicon or if trade restrictions tighten, our bear case implies $211.98, a 10.57% drawdown. Retail sentiment has cooled toward neutral in recent Reddit activity.
How Marvell Compares to Broadcom and NVIDIA
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the most direct comp for custom AI silicon and networking. Broadcom has posted rapid AI semiconductor growth in its most recent quarter. That growth profile makes MRVL’s projected FY27 growth of approximately 40% look credible rather than aggressive.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades at a premium multiple with a much larger data center revenue base. Marvell’s forward P/E of 58x looks rich versus NVIDIA’s compute franchise but reasonable given MRVL’s smaller scale and steeper acceleration curve.
| Company | Forward P/E | Most Recent Revenue Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Marvell | 58x | 27.57% |
| Broadcom | N/A | N/A |
| NVIDIA | N/A | N/A |
The peer set supports our $279.18 target as a balanced valuation.
Marvell Price Prediction 2026-2030
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $279.18 with 90% confidence supports a buy. The scale tips on management’s raised FY28 outlook of $16.5 billion and the Google warrant validating custom-silicon leadership.
The thesis strengthens if scale-up optics revenue tracks toward the $300 million FY28 outlook. The thesis weakens if a top hyperscaler shifts a custom XPU program in-house.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $248.84 |
| 2027 | $266.99 |
| 2028 | $318.23 |
| 2029 | $339.50 |
| 2030 | $385.33 |
These projections assume Marvell continues executing on custom silicon and interconnect. Significant upside could result from scale-up switching, which management said is not materially included in the current $16.5 billion FY28 outlook.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
