The Nasdaq’s Biggest Winner Was a Bitcoin Stock That Is Still Down 56% in a Year
Strategy surged 18% to lead the Nasdaq on Thursday, yet its shareholders are sitting on a loss that dwarfs bitcoin's own slide over the past year. The same leverage that fueled one electric session has a habit of cutting just…
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The oddity of Thursday’s session: on a day markets cheered fading rate-hike odds, the Nasdaq’s single biggest gainer was Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction), the leveraged Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holding company, closing at $144.82, up 18% on the day.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be “inclined to support holding rates steady,” which dropped September rate-hike odds from 63% to 50%. Treasury yields fell, and the most leveraged bitcoin bet on the tape ripped. Three days earlier, a CNBC panel warned that a hawkish Fed and debt financing made Strategy’s resumed bitcoin buying risky. That exact macro risk flipped for one session.
Leverage That Cuts Both Ways
Here’s the payoff investors came for. Even after Thursday’s rip, MSTR is down 56% over twelve months, while bitcoin itself has fallen roughly 31% over the past year. The leverage that made Thursday spectacular is the same leverage that cost holders nearly twice bitcoin’s annual loss. Strategy still carries $6.7B in convertible debt and $400.7M in Q2 preferred dividend obligations, against 846,000 BTC marked well below cost basis.
Yield Angle Hiding Behind the Volatility
I’ve been watching bitcoin treasury plays since Saylor’s first purchase in 2020, and the equity swings still surprise me. For investors uncomfortable with common-stock leverage, Strategy’s preferred stack offers a different angle. Stretch (NASDAQ:STRC) trades near par with a 12.00% annualized dividend, backed by a $3.75B USD Reserve covering 2.1+ years of obligations. If you believe bitcoin holds above cost basis and the Fed stays patient, the yield stack pays you to wait. If capital markets tighten, that 3.75% fed funds upper bound with a hike now in play puts the debt load back at center stage. A position like MSTR belongs in the speculation sleeve of a portfolio, not the core, and we wrote a free playbook on sizing that sleeve so one 18% day (or a matching drop) does not blow up the plan: Small Stakes, Big Swings. Thursday’s rally is one Fed comment away from reversing.
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I've been writing about stocks and personal finance for 20+ years. I believe all great companies are tech companies in the long run, and I invest accordingly.
