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Live: Will Oracle Smash Q1 Earnings Tonight?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Sep 10, 5:01pm ET · Published Sep 10, 2:27pm ET

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Oracle Q1 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

That wraps up our initial coverage of Oracle’s Q1 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Oracle Q1 Earnings Are Out - Stock Rips 6% on 10% EPS Beat

Oracle just reported earnings, with shares initially up 6% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $19.3 billion vs. $19.1 billion expected
  • Adjusted EPS: $1.92 vs. $1.74 expected
  • Operating Income: $8.2 billion vs. $7.8 billion expected

Guidance:

  • Revenue: $90 billion vs. $89 billion expected
  • EPS: $8.10 vs. $8.06 expected

Quick Read:

Oracle delivered a particularly strong 10% EPS beat, while revenue came in roughly 1% ahead of expectations.

RPO reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, giving investors another sign that massive AI and cloud demand is continuing to translate into Oracle’s backlog.

Top Hedge Funds Holding Oracle

ORCL Oracle
Tracked 13F positioning
3:10pm ET
$1.9Bacross 13 tracked filers
8 added · 2 trimmed · 2 new
  • Point72 Asset Management LP
    $500M+1.9%
  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc
    $445M+0.5%
  • Millennium Management LLC
    $331M+1.1%
  • Bridgewater Associates LP
    $210M-0.1%
  • Tudor Investment Corp
    $185M—
  • Marshall Wace LLP
    $142M—
  • Balyasny Asset Management LP
    $71M+0.5%
  • Two Sigma Investments LLC
    $17M+0.8%

+ 5 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Eight of the 13 filers added Oracle shares in the June quarter, against just two trimmers and zero exits, with Point72 sitting at the top of the value-ranked list. That is the positioning disclosed as of June 30, roughly 45 days stale, so tonight's report meets a hedge fund crowd that leaned in well before the backlog debate heated up.

Prediction Markets Give 80% Odds Oracle Beats Earnings Tonight

ORCL Oracle
Prediction markets
2:50pm ET
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings?
80%Yes-6pp this week
Polymarket · $3k traded · resolves Thu, Sep 10

Traders on Polymarket still lean heavily toward an Oracle EPS beat tonight, but that confidence has cooled by 6 points into the close. The crowd's bar is set high on a quarter where management already guided to 27-29% revenue growth, so a narrow beat may not satisfy the setup.

Yes probability
88.4%81.8%75.1%  

Oracle Traders Are Bullish With a 0.62 Put/Call Ratio

ORCL Oracle
Options positioning
2:45pm ET
Put/call 0.62Balanced
CallsPuts
ATM implied vol200.5%
ExpiryFri, Sep 11chain as of Wed, Sep 9

Friday's expiry is stacked with calls: 10,173 contracts sit at the $165 strike versus 1,890 puts, and the 0.62 put/call ratio says traders are bullish heading into tonight's report.   However, that crowded call ownership leaves little cushion if Oracle disappoints. ATM implied volatility at 200.5% on the $162.50 strike shows how much movement options are pricing.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $155
    2.5k / 2.3k
  • $157.5
    1k / 1.3k
  • $160
    1.5k / 5.6k
  • $162.5
    1.2k / 2k
  • $165
    1.9k / 10.2k
  • $167.5
    335 / 5.5k

What Happened Last Quarter for Oracle

ORCL Oracle
Last quarter — Q4 FY2026
2:40pm ET
EPS$2.11vs $1.96 est +7.6%
Revenue$19.18Bvs $19.09B est +0.5%
Earnings-day move -8.5%Since report -22.8%

June's quarter showed Oracle can beat on earnings while barely clearing the revenue bar, and investors punished the thin top-line margin plus the capital spending it takes to feed OCI. That reaction, and the slide since, means tonight's report has to deliver on the 27-29% revenue growth guide rather than lean on the backlog story again.

Price since the report
$208$158$108  

Reported Wed, Jun 10 · next print Thu, Sep 10

Analysts' Top Questions Ahead of Oracle's Q1 Earnings Call

ORCL Oracle
Call preview · Q1 FY2027
2:35pm ET
Thu, Sep 10 Earnings call · after close

Analysts have pressed Oracle on OCI capital spending on every one of the last four calls, and that thread decides tonight's reaction: the backlog story we flagged this afternoon only pays off if management funds the buildout without wrecking margins or cash flow. RPO and booking momentum went unmentioned last quarter after three straight appearances, so its return on the call would signal how durable that pipeline really is.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26
  • OCI AI training and inferencing
  • OCI CapEx and infrastructure spend
  • Cloud database and multi-cloud strategy
  • Strategic SaaS and Fusion acceleration
  • Oracle RPO and booking momentum

Oracle's $638 Billion Backlog Faces Big Test in Q1 Earnings Tonight

Oracle heads into tonight’s earnings with an unusually high bar after guiding for 27-29% revenue growth and 58-64% total cloud growth in the first quarter. But the bigger number investors should watch is Oracle’s massive $638 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 363% year over year.

That backlog has given investors tremendous visibility into future demand, but Oracle now needs to prove it can convert those contracts into revenue quickly enough to justify its aggressive infrastructure buildout.

The company expects roughly $70 billion of net capital expenditures in fiscal 2027 and plans to raise around $40 billion through debt and equity financing.

Prediction markets currently put the probability of an EPS beat at around 80%. Investors will be watching OCI growth and management’s delivery timeline for its enormous backlog for evidence that Oracle’s massive AI infrastructure spending cycle is translating into equally massive revenue growth.

Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) is expected to report Q1 FY2027 results today at 4:05 PM ET. The stock has fallen 34.44% over the past year, making this report unusually important for major capex players in the AI infrastructure trade. The stock is down 3.6% today heading into earnings.

Strong Guidance Resulted in a Pullback

Oracle closed FY2026 with a standout quarter: EPS of $2.11 on $19.18 billion in revenue, with cloud infrastructure up 93% and RPO climbing to $638 billion. Shares still slid 8.53% on the day of the report.

The pullback reflects an aggressive spending path. FY2026 free cash flow ran to -$23.7 billion as CapEx reached $55.7 billion. Co-CEOs Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia framed FY2027 as an AI capacity ramp, with global GPU utilization already at 97.5% and Q1 delivery approaching 1 gigawatt.

Consensus Estimates and Setup

Metric Q1 FY27 Estimate YoY Change FY27 Estimate FY28 Estimate
Revenue $19.13B +27%-29% $89.37B $130.74B
EPS (Normalized) $1.7391 +17%-20% $8.063 $10.9676

Consensus sits inside Oracle’s own guidance of $1.72 to $1.76 EPS. EPS estimates for the full year have drifted higher, moving from $8.05 ninety days ago to $8.06. Analyst count of 42 on FY27 revenue signals broad coverage.

ORCL price target

What I’m Watching Tonight: OCI Delivery, RPO Conversion, and Cash Burn

Tonight, I’ll be watching cloud growth against the 58%-64% guide, since that number carries the FY27 acceleration narrative. Multicloud database grew 404% year-over-year last quarter and remains the leading indicator inside cloud.

Analysts are also going to be focused on RPO conversion. Management said only 12% of the $638 billion backlog is expected to convert in the next 12 months, with another 34% in the following 24 months. Any acceleration in those ratios would validate the near-term revenue path.

Free cash flow is another key number to watch. FY27 net CapEx is guided near $70 billion, with reported CapEx higher by $20-25 billion in prepayments and timing. Investors will be looking for commentary on how customer prepaid and bring-your-own-hardware contracts (already $75 billion) offset that outlay.

Margins matter too. Non-GAAP operating margin compressed at Q2 FY26, and management pitched OCI as a 30-40% margin business at steady state. Oracle Health, guided to double-digit growth on the new AI Cerner rollout, will be a credibility test on the applications side.

ORCL analyst ratings

Oracle Earnings Reaction History

Quarter EPS Surprise Day-of Move 1-Day Move 7-Day Move
Q4 FY26 N/A -8.53% +0.02% +0.1%
Q3 FY26 N/A -1.43% +9.18% +3.54%
Q2 FY26 +32.43% -10.83% -4.47% -9.46%
Q1 FY26 -0.63% +35.95% -6.23% -8.2%

On average, shares moved -1.28% seven days after earnings across the past six reported quarters.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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