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Live: Can HPE’s Q3 Earnings Tonight Keep Its 120% YTD Rally Going?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Sep 2, 3:54pm ET · Published Sep 2, 3:08pm ET

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HPE Earnings Track Record: Stock Price Has Risen After Past 4 Reports

HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Earnings preview · Q3 2026
Reports
Wed, Sep 2After close
Consensus EPS
$0.93
Consensus revenue
$11.91B

A 120% run this year means the beat itself is priced in, so the burden falls on the AI systems backlog and whether Juniper networking can keep compounding at anything close to last quarter's pace. Five straight beats have built the setup, and the market's reaction to each one has gotten larger.

What to watch
  • Whether the AI systems backlog grows past the $5.9 billion reported last quarter
  • Networking growth rate now that the Juniper comparison starts to normalize
  • Any update on the DOJ settlement remedy and the Instant On divestiture
  • Full-year guidance and free cash flow after Juniper integration costs
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 5 of last 5
  • Q2 2025
    +16.3%
  • Q3 2025
    +5.4%
  • Q4 2025
    +6.5%
  • Q1 2026
    +10.8%
  • Q2 2026
    +47.8%
Earnings-day stock move · last 4 reports
  • Q3 2025
    +1.5%
  • Q4 2025
    +1.9%
  • Q1 2026
    +3.2%
  • Q2 2026
    +9.2%

Analysts' Top 5 Questions for HPE Ahead of Q3 Earnings Tonight

Ahead of tonight’s call, here’s what to watch as Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) tries to defend a 113.67% YTD run. Polymarket puts odds of a beat at 95%.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

  • Sustainability of AI systems demand given the $5.9 billion backlog and pipeline described as multiples of it.
  • Pace of Juniper synergy capture beyond the $200 million annual target.
  • Networking margin trajectory after Q2’s 21.6% result.
  • Conservatism of the FY27 framework: 8% to 12% revenue growth.
  • Capital return timing once 2x net leverage is reached.

Key Topics and Buzzwords

  • Listen for: “Catalyst savings,” “GreenLake ARR,” “scale-up Ethernet,” and Elliott board dynamics.

Red Flags

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We expect HPE to release Q3 earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.

HPE Is Up 120% This Year. What Wall Street Expects in Tonight's Q3 Earnings

Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports Q3 earnings after the bell today, with Wall Street expecting $0.93 in EPS on $11.91 billion of revenue.

Expectations are high after networking revenue soared 148.2% year over year last quarter, helped by the Juniper acquisition, while HPE’s AI systems backlog reached $5.9 billion. Shares have responded by climbing nearly 120% year to date.

A clean beat and higher FY26 guidance could extend HPE’s transformation from a slow-growth hardware company into an AI-and-networking growth story.

But with consensus already above management’s guidance midpoint, any slowdown in networking growth or AI backlog conversion could hit the stock hard.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE | HPE Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q3 2026 results at 4:05 PM ET. Fresh off a 47.77% EPS beat and record networking growth, tonight tests whether Juniper synergies and AI orders can continue compounding.

HPE earnings explorer

Momentum Meets a Rerated Stock

Q2 delivered $10.678 billion in revenue, up 40% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.79, well above the $0.5346 consensus. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 13.3% from 8.0% a year earlier, and free cash flow reached $915 million.

Management raised FY26 free cash flow guidance to at least $3.5 billion, up from the prior $2 billion outlook. Shares trade at $50.18, though they slipped 4.81% over the past week. Polymarket traders assign a 94% probability to another beat.

Consensus Estimates

Metric Q3 FY2026 Estimate YoY Change FY2026 Estimate FY2027 Estimate
Revenue $11.91B +35% $44.98B $50.21B
EPS (Non-GAAP) $0.9261 +122% $3.4236 $4.0368

Q3 EPS consensus has climbed from $0.5724 ninety days ago to $0.9261 today, reflecting the post-Juniper reset. Analysts’ revisions have skewed upward across every fiscal period, and the Street sits above the top of HPE’s $0.88-$0.93 guided EPS range.

HPE price target

What I’m Watching Tonight: AI Backlog, Networking Margins, and Capital Return

Tonight, I’m watching 5 things. First, AI systems traction. HPE booked $1.8 billion in new AI orders last quarter and entered Q3 with $5.9 billion in backlog. I’ll watch whether the enterprise and sovereign mix continues expanding margins over classic service-provider work.

Second, networking normalized growth. Reported growth is currently inflated by the acquisition of Juniper Networks. Normalized networking revenue grew 10% last quarter, with campus and branch orders in the upper 20% range.

Third, Catalyst savings pace. Headcount sits just over 65,000, down over 9% since programs began, and Juniper synergies are running ahead of the $200 million annual target.

Fourth, supply constraints. CEO Antonio Neri flagged DRAM and NAND inflation as the binding constraint on order-to-revenue conversion. I’ll be watching for any insights on FY27 capacity.

Fifth, we’re of course going to be watching HPE’s capital return. HPE guided to reach 2x net leverage by fiscal year-end, one year early, unlocking a 75% free cash flow payout policy.

Earnings History

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q2 2026 +47.77% +19.47% +6.11% -12.28%
Q1 2026 +10.75% -3.26% +0.18% +13.85%
Q4 2025 +6.55% +2.27% +2.31% -5.62%
Q3 2025 +5.41% +1.55% +7.34% +7.04%

On average, shares moved 3.99% seven days after earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.

His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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