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Live: Can Evolution Petroleum’s Q4 Earnings Tonight Spark a Rebound After 28% 1-Year Drop?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Sep 15, 5:37pm ET · Published Sep 15, 2:01pm ET

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Evolution Petroleum Q4 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

That wraps up our initial coverage of Evolution Petroleum’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Analysts Top Questions Ahead of EPM's Q4 Earnings Call Tomorrow

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Call preview · Q3 2025
Tue, Sep 15 Earnings call · after close

Production run rates and timing has come up on every recent call, and it is the thread that decides Wednesday's 11am ET call after a quarter where output fell 4% year over year on well declines while realized pricing did the heavy lifting. Analysts will also press on minerals and non-op performance now that the Permian Minerals deal is being sold as the fiscal 2027 growth engine.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26Q4 26
  • Delhi field & CO2 strategy
  • LOE trajectory & cost management
  • Production run rates & timing
  • Minerals & non-op performance
  • M&A pipeline & valuation spreads

EPMs Key Numbers for Q4 Came Out Better Than Expected

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Q4 2026 reported
  • Revenue$24M+14.7%
  • Operating income$3M+159%
  • Net income$5M+35.2%
  • Operating cash flow$7M-35.0%
  • Free cash flow$5M+285%
  • Capex$1M-89.8%
  • Cash$6M+145%
  • Total assets$169M+5.3%
Segments
  • Crude Oil$17M
  • Natural Gas$4M
  • Natural Gas Liquids$3M

Crude oil carried the quarter, delivering $16.5 million of the $24.2 million in revenue as realized oil prices jumped 49% year over year to $90.74 a barrel, enough to offset a 23% slide in natural gas pricing and a 4% production decline. Capex fell nearly 90%, which is what turned free cash flow positive at $5.4 million despite the adjusted loss.

Evolution Petroleum Q4 Earnings Are Out - Stock Pops 4% on Results

Evolution Petroleum just reported fiscal Q4 earnings, with shares initially up 4% following the report.

Revenue came in ahead of expectations, although adjusted earnings fell short of Wall Street estimates. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $24.2 million vs. $23.6 million expected
  • Adjusted EPS: -$0.02 vs. $0.01 expected
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $6.5 million, up 110% sequentially
  • Net Income: $4.6 million vs. a $8.9 million loss in Q3

Quick Read:

Revenue jumped 15% year over year and beat estimates, but Evolution Petroleum posted an adjusted loss compared with expectations for a small profit.

The underlying picture improved sharply from Q3, with adjusted EBITDA more than doubling sequentially and net income swinging back to a $4.6 million profit.

3/4 Analysts Rate EPM a Buy Ahead of Earnings

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Valuation · as of Sep 15
$3.69-0.5%Target $4.88 · +32.1%
52-wk low $3.0252-wk high $5.12
Forward P/E
149.3×
PEG
0.7×
Price/Sales
1.6×
EV/EBITDA
8.3×
Price/Book
2.3×
Market cap $134M · Revenue -10.6% YoY
3 Buy1 Hold

Evolution Petroleum trades at $3.69, about 67 cents off its 52-week low, with revenue down 10.6% year over year and shares priced at 149x forward earnings. The consensus target of $4.88 implies roughly a third more upside, and three of four analysts rate it a buy, with an earnings report due tonight.

EPM's Balance Sheet Gets Tighter Ahead of Q4 Earnings

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Balance sheet · Q2 2024 – Q1 2026
$3MNet cash
Cash $3M · Debt $0K · Equity $58M · Current ratio 0.61×

Cash fell to under $3 million in Q1 2026, with a current ratio of 0.61, the tightest in the two years shown, and equity has eroded from $81 million to $58 million over the same stretch. That leaves a thin cushion for another loss quarter, so tonight's report has to fund the dividend and the acquisition strategy out of operations.

Net cash by quarter
$0.00B$-0.03B$-0.05B

Top Hedge Funds Holding Evolution Petroleum Ahead of Q4 Earnings Tonight

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Tracked 13F positioning
$4Macross 2 tracked filers
2 added · 3 exited
  • Renaissance Technologies LLC
    $4M+0.1%
  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc
    $171K+0.7%
  • Two Sigma Investments LLC
    —Exited
  • Point72 Asset Management LP
    —Exited
  • Millennium Management LLC
    —Exited

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Three quant shops (Two Sigma, Point72 and Millennium) were fully out of Evolution Petroleum as of the June 30 disclosures, leaving Renaissance Technologies holding nearly all of the roughly $4 million still on the books. Renaissance and D. E. Shaw both added, so what is left is small, concentrated and quant-driven, which is thin institutional support heading into tonight's earnings report. Those filings are about 45 days stale.

EPM's Technical Setup Heading Into Q4 Earnings Tonight

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Technical setup
Support & resistance · chart through Tue, Sep 15
  • R2$4.83+29.8%
  • R1$3.90+4.8%
  • Now$3.72
  • S1$3.43-7.8%
  • S2$3.25-12.6%
50-day avg
$3.69+0.8% above
200-day avg
$4.06-8.4% below
52-week range
$3.19 – $5.70

Evolution Petroleum goes into tonight's report sitting at $3.72, pinned right on its 50-day average of $3.69 and just 53 cents off the $3.19 52-week low. Support at $3.43 is the line that matters if the numbers disappoint again, while a beat puts the $3.90 resistance shelf in play before the 200-day at $4.06 comes into view.

EPM's Earnings Day Track Record After 600% EPS MIss Last Quarter

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Earnings preview · Q3 2025
Reports
Tue, Sep 15After close
Consensus EPS
$0.02
Consensus revenue
$22M

Evolution Petroleum's results land after the close tonight, and the last four quarters have swung wildly in both directions, with the most recent miss knocking the stock down 12.1% the next session. At a $136.6 million market cap, a penny either way on a near break-even quarter moves this one hard.

What to watch
  • Production volumes from the recent acquisitions and whether they are contributing as promised
  • Realized pricing across oil and natural gas liquids
  • Operating cost per barrel and whether margins held
  • Any commentary on dividend coverage from free cash flow
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 2 of last 4
  • Q4 2025
    +125.6%
  • Q1 2026
    -100.0%
  • Q2 2026
    +300.0%
  • Q3 2026
    -600.0%
Earnings-day stock move · last 4 reports
  • Q4 2025
    -0.5%
  • Q1 2026
    -4.4%
  • Q2 2026
    +5.5%
  • Q3 2026
    -12.1%

Traders Are Bullish on EPM With Low Liquidity

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Options positioning
Put/call 0.02Calls dominant
CallsPuts
ATM implied vol
157.6%
Expiry
Fri, Sep 18chain as of Mon, Sep 14

Options traders have stacked almost everything into calls ahead of tonight's earnings report, with a put/call ratio of 0.02 and 313 calls open at the $5 strike against a single put. That is near-total bullish conviction into the earnings release due to the stock's low liquidity. At-the-money implied volatility of 157.6% into Friday expiration says the market expects the move to be violent either way.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $2.5
    11 / 35
  • $5
    1 / 313
  • $7.5
    0 / 2

EPM Fell 12% on Q3 Earnings. What the Market Wants to See in Q4

EPM Evolution Petroleum
Last quarter — Q3 2026
EPS
-$0.09vs $0.02 est -600.0%
Revenue
$20Mvs $22M est -7.9%
Earnings-day move -12.1%Since report -20.8%

Evolution Petroleum swung to a loss in the January quarter on softer revenue, and the stock has kept sliding ever since, leaving the acquisition-driven volume story still unproven. That puts the burden on tonight's report to show the barrels management bought are finally converting into cash, with a market cap of just $137 million absorbing whatever comes.

Price since the report
$4.9$4.1$3.2

Reported Tue, May 12 · next print Tue, Sep 15

Stay On This Page to Receive Live $EPM Q4 Earnings Updates

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect Evolution Petroleum to release Q4 earnings at 4:55 p.m. ET, but earnings may be released earlier or later than that time.

Evolution Petroleum's Q4 Earnings Could Put Its Acquisition Strategy to the Test

Evolution Petroleum is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings results at 4:55 PM ET tonight, with Wall Street expecting a roughly break-even quarter. Consensus currently calls for EPS of about $0.01, while revenue is expected to rise year over year.

The bigger question is whether Evolution can finally show the earnings power management has been promising. Investors will be watching production from the company’s Louisiana Haynesville and Bossier royalty interests, where 23 wells were expected to begin producing in the near term, alongside progress from its TexMex properties.

The stakes are high after a difficult fiscal Q3 that included an $8.9 million GAAP net loss, $2.2 million in realized hedge losses, and production disruptions. A stronger Q4 could help validate Evolution’s acquisition-heavy push toward a more diversified portfolio of long-life oil, gas, and royalty assets.

The dividend remains another key piece of the story. Evolution has maintained its $0.12 quarterly payout and recently declared another $0.12 dividend for fiscal Q1 2027.

If Louisiana volumes ramp and TexMex improves, Q4 could mark an important inflection point. However, another weak quarter could put greater focus on Evolution’s leverage, capital needs, and whether its acquisition strategy is translating into cash flow quickly enough.

Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Evolution Petroleum (NYSE:EPM) is expected to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings at 4:55 PM ET today, with the earnings call scheduled for tomorrow, Wednesday, September 16, at 11:00 AM ET. This quarter matters because management framed it as the period when temporary Q3 headwinds roll off and the portfolio’s “underlying earnings power” should show through.

Recovery Quarter Meets a Crude Rally

Last quarter was rough. Revenue landed at $20.17M, down 10.6% YoY, and adjusted EPS came in at -$0.09 versus a $0.018 estimate. A $7.62M unrealized derivative loss, a $1.2M retroactive Delhi transportation charge, and Jonah differentials that trimmed roughly $3.39 per BOE drove the miss.

Sentiment has been mixed. EPM is up 12.66% year to date at $3.77, yet still down 19.27% over the past year. The commodity setup improved sharply, with WTI running from $69.74 on July 1 to $97.26 on September 9, while Henry Hub sat near $2.81.

Consensus Estimates and What They Signal

Metric Q4 FY26 Estimate YoY Change FY26 Estimate FY27 Estimate
Revenue $21.74M +3.0% $85.24M $85.66M
EPS (Normalized) -$0.004 n/m -$0.066 $0.05

The Q4 EPS expectation ranges from -$0.01 to $0.01, with the average sliding from $0.008 sixty days ago to -$0.004 today. Full-year FY27 EPS consensus of $0.05 implies analysts believe the reset quarter is behind Evolution.

What I’m Watching Tonight: Louisiana Royalties, TexMex, and the Hedge Reversal

Tonight, I’ll be watching whether the 23 Louisiana Haynesville and Bossier royalty wells flagged for near-term first production actually contribute this quarter. COO Mark Bunch said the operator activity supports a fiscal Q4 ramp, though management declined to quantify the volumes ahead of data.

TexMex is another data point to watch. The workover program targets 100+ net BOEPD by end of fiscal Q4, and CEO Kelly Loyd said the 300 BOEPD lost to January ice storms is “almost substantially all back online.”

Analysts will also focus on the hedge book. CEO Kelly Loyd noted, “selling oil for higher prices than our hedges is a really good thing,” and with WTI back near $97, at least 30% of crude production remains unhedged. Investors wil also be looking for Delhi commentary for any move to take production in kind, and any update on the $3.3M SCOOP/STACK divestiture proceeds redeployment.

Finally, liquidity was $10.4M against $56.5M of borrowings at 6.78%, so any commentary on the credit facility will be meaningful.

Recent Earnings Surprise History

Quarter Reported EPS Estimate EPS Surprise
Q3 FY26 -$0.09 $0.018 -600%
Q2 FY26 $0.03 $0.0075 +300%
Q1 FY26 $0.00 $0.01 -100%
Q4 FY25 $0.03 $0.01 +125.56%

Post-release price move data across the trailing year is not consistently available in this dataset beyond Q1 FY26, when shares fell roughly 11.55% after the report.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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