AeroVironment reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings at 4:10 PM ET tonight, with the stock sitting at $142.63 after trading above $270 last December. Expectations have fallen considerably, with consensus EPS down from $0.79 90 days ago to $0.25 today.
The biggest question tonight is whether AeroVironment can reaffirm its FY27 outlook for roughly 10% revenue growth. Management expects revenue to be heavily weighted toward the first half of the year, putting more pressure on Q1 to deliver.
Investors will also be watching for a recovery from last quarter’s 32% gross margin and signs of healthy organic growth outside the BlueHalo acquisition.
Longer term, counter-UAS remains one of the biggest pieces of the AVAV story. Management has said the business could eventually become “equally as large, if not two to three times bigger” than loitering munitions.
After three quarterly misses in FY26, a clean quarter and reaffirmed guidance tonight could go a long way toward rebuilding investor confidence.
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV | AVAV Price Prediction) is expected to report Q1 FY2027 earnings results tonight at 4:10 PM ET. Shares are down 4.69% today ahead of earnings and have slid 41.04% year to date. Tonight provides the market’s first clean look at the business following the BlueHalo acquisition.
Last quarter delivered a decisive beat. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.84 versus $1.4719 estimated, on revenue of $641.6M, up 133.3% year over year. Organic growth ran at 31%, and Precision Strike expanded 80% pro forma to $333M on Switchblade demand.
Sentiment has since deteriorated. AVAV is down 23.62% over the past month, pressured by the $1.5B SCAR unfunded backlog wipeout, ongoing securities litigation, and a FY26 GAAP net loss of $265.1M.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 Estimate | YoY Change | FY27 Estimate | FY28 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $456.09M | +0.3% | $2.19B | $2.53B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $0.2479 | -22.5% | $3.2183 | $4.3910 |
The FY27 EPS average has slid from $4.03 ninety days ago to $3.22, with 9 downward revisions in the trailing 30 days. Q1 is the softest quarter of the year given the 45/55 first-half/second-half revenue split.
I’ll be looking for five things in tonight’s earnings release. First, organic growth. With BlueHalo and ESAero fully lapped, this is the first quarter where investors can isolate the legacy AV growth rate against the 31% Q4 organic pace. Any deceleration signals demand air pockets tied to the continuing resolution management has already assumed will delay funding into the March timeframe.
Second, gross margin trajectory. Q4 adjusted gross margin was 34%, or 730 basis points above the quarter-two low. Investors need continued lift to trust the 14.5% FY27 adjusted EBITDA margin midpoint.
Third, bookings and book-to-bill. Trailing twelve-month book-to-bill sits at 1.4 times, and I want to see LASSO, LRR, and LOCUST orders keep the pipeline building.
Fourth, capex commentary. Guidance calls for capex at 12-14% of revenue to fund Salt Lake City, Huntsville, Albuquerque, and Dayton. Analysts will focus on how quickly that spend converts into Switchblade, Freedom Eagle One, and LOCUST throughput.
Fifth, tone on Golden Dome and Halo Shield positioning, given the $14.4 billion FY27 counter-unmanned systems investment in the defense budget.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY26 | +25.01% | +18.76% | -4.42% | -9.51% |
| Q3 FY26 | -7.39% | -6.25% | +3.91% | -6.42% |
| Q2 FY26 | -44.23% | -12.85% | -6.59% | +48.36% |
| Q1 FY26 | -6.71% | +6.95% | +10.13% | +58.79% |
On average, shares moved 3.86% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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