Live: Can AeroVironment’s Q1 Earnings Tonight Reverse Today’s 4.7% Slide?

That wraps up our initial coverage of AeroVironment’s Q1 results. Thank you for stopping by!

AeroVironment’s earnings beat didn’t lead management to raise its full-year outlook, but the company maintained guidance calling for a substantial step up in revenue over the remainder of fiscal 2027.

Management continues to expect $2.125-2.225 billion in FY27 revenue, along with adjusted EBITDA of $305-325 million and adjusted EPS of $3.02-3.34.

Here’s some interesting math: AeroVironment generated $480.5 million in Q1 revenue. At the midpoint of its $2.175 billion full-year guidance, that leaves about $1.69 billion of revenue for the final three quarters, or an average of roughly $565 million per quarter.

The record $1.5 billion funded backlog provides visibility toward reaching that $1.69 billion of remaining revenue for the year to reach guidance, but it also puts execution front and center.

AeroVironment now needs to convert rapidly growing defense demand into deliveries as it expands manufacturing capacity and strengthens its supply chain.

At first glance, AeroVironment’s 6% year-over-year revenue growth might not look particularly impressive for a defense technology company, especially with the market expecting significant future growth from the business.

However, profitability improved considerably beneath the surface. Gross profit jumped 31% to $124.6 million, while gross margin expanded from 21% to 26%. AeroVironment’s operating loss also narrowed dramatically, from $69.3 million last year to just $10.9 million this quarter.

There is an important acquisition-related wrinkle. The quarter included $43.4 million of intangible amortization and other non-cash purchase accounting expenses, versus $79.7 million a year ago. On a GAAP basis, AeroVironment still lost $0.10 per share, while adjusted EPS reached $0.59.

That makes the company’s post-BlueHalo profitability worth watching closely over the coming quarters as acquisition-related accounting effects normalize.

AeroVironment’s $480.5 million in first-quarter revenue set a company record, but its bookings may provide a better signal about where the business is heading.

The defense technology company recorded $700 million in bookings, producing a 1.4x book-to-bill ratio. Funded backlog reached a record $1.5 billion, up 37% year over year and from $1.2 billion at the end of April.

That means AeroVironment added roughly $300 million to funded backlog in a single quarter, even while recognizing nearly $481 million in revenue. A book-to-bill ratio above 1 also means new bookings are arriving faster than the company is converting existing orders into revenue.

CEO Wahid Nawabi specifically highlighted expanding manufacturing capacity and strengthening the company’s supply chain to meet growing customer demand for autonomous systems.

AeroVironment just reported earnings, with shares initially up 4% after the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $481 million vs. $456 million expected
• Adjusted EPS: $0.59 vs. $0.25 expected
• Adjusted EBITDA: $39 million vs. $39 million expected
• Funded Backlog: $1.5 billion, up 37% year over year
• Book-to-Bill: 1.4x

FY27 Guidance:

• Revenue: $2.2 billion vs. $2.2 billion expected
• EPS: $0.37 vs. $3.22 expected
• Adjusted EBITDA: $315 million vs. $318 million expected

Quick Read:

AeroVironment delivered a strong Q1 beat, with revenue topping estimates and EPS more than doubling expectations.

A $1.5 billion funded backlog and 1.4x book-to-bill point to strong demand, although FY27 EBITDA guidance came in slightly below expectations.

Insider Form 4 filings for AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV) before tonight’s earnings show consistent selling and no open-market buys.

Dollar-weighted activity skews sell. Nawabi disposed of 28,265 shares on June 29 after a 23,069-share performance-restricted grant, plus 5,246 more on July 10.

Members of the executive board, including Brown, Stevenson, Woodward, and Brian Shackley, all sold on June 29 alongside vesting, likely sell-to-cover. Director Stephen Page trimmed twice in August at $191.98 and $174.41. No insider is buying with conviction ahead of tonight’s release.

With the Q1 earnings release due after the close, AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV) trades at $140.79, off 5.37% intraday and 24.6% over the past month.

Consensus Bar

• Adjusted EPS: $0.2479 (range $0.0565 to $0.55, 15 analysts)
• Revenue: $456.09M across 16 analysts
• EPS bar has been slashed from $0.7850 90 days ago

KPIs to Track

• Segment split between AxS and SCDE
• Switchblade-led Precision Strike momentum (+80% pro forma last quarter)
• Book-to-bill trajectory
• Gross margin recovery
• Any tweak to the $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion FY27 revenue range

Move Triggers

Historically, beats have produced an average day-of gain of 9.92%; misses average -4.13%. The Sept 11 options chain leans bearish, with 4,798 put versus 3,864 call contracts traded.

A reaffirmed FY27 outlook plus a topline above the $512M high estimate would spark the sharpest upside, while any guidance cut or SCDE softness would be the clearest downside catalyst.

With AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV) down 5.5% intraday to $140.60 and off 41.87% year to date, here is where the two sides square off.

Bull Case

• Momentum from Q4: EPS of $1.84 beat by 25.01% on 31% organic growth.
• Demand backdrop: The FY27 defense budget delivers over $74B for drone dominance and counter-drone technologies.
• Analyst conviction: 17 Buy ratings and a $225.77 target, with insiders net buying.
• Reaction skew: Historical beats average a 9.92% day-of pop.

Bear Case

• Guided-in weakness: Q1 EPS is only 25% of first-half’s total, with a $30 million SCAR hole.
• Cash burn: FY27 free cash flow is not expected to be positive as capex ramps to 12%-14% of revenue.
• Sentiment fade: 30-day sentiment declined 5.99, and legal probes into the board’s fiduciary duties linger.
• Miss punishment: Q2 FY26 dropped 12.85% on a miss.

AeroVironment reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings at 4:10 PM ET tonight, with the stock sitting at $142.63 after trading above $270 last December. Expectations have fallen considerably, with consensus EPS down from $0.79 90 days ago to $0.25 today.

The biggest question tonight is whether AeroVironment can reaffirm its FY27 outlook for roughly 10% revenue growth. Management expects revenue to be heavily weighted toward the first half of the year, putting more pressure on Q1 to deliver.

Investors will also be watching for a recovery from last quarter’s 32% gross margin and signs of healthy organic growth outside the BlueHalo acquisition.

Longer term, counter-UAS remains one of the biggest pieces of the AVAV story. Management has said the business could eventually become “equally as large, if not two to three times bigger” than loitering munitions.

After three quarterly misses in FY26, a clean quarter and reaffirmed guidance tonight could go a long way toward rebuilding investor confidence.