McDonald’s Free Fall Continues: A Wall Street Pros Says 45% Gains Are Just Around the Corner
McDonald's stock just hit a two-year low while the broader market rallied more than 11%, and one Wall Street analyst sees that gap as the setup of the year for patient investors.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Shares of McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD | MCD Price Prediction) trade near $248.48, well below Wall Street’s $312.84 average price target, a gap of roughly 26%.
The world’s largest restaurant chain by system sales rarely shows up in dislocation stories, yet a U.S. execution stumble has pushed the stock to two-year lows even as MCD just marked 50 consecutive years of dividend increases. Truist’s Jake Bartlett carries a $356 target implying roughly 43% upside.
A Q2 Execution Miss That Broke a Steady Chart
Global comparable sales grew just 1.3% in Q2 fiscal 2026, down from 3.8% a year earlier, with U.S. comps at only 0.8% and traffic negative. EPS of $3.38 beat, but SG&A jumped 17% and U.S. comps were slightly negative in July.
CEO Chris Kempczinski was blunt: “We don’t have a strategy problem. We simply didn’t execute at the level we needed to in the second quarter.” Management blamed inconsistent rollout of the under-$3 value menu, reduced digital offers, and an underperforming FIFA campaign. MCD has fallen from $329.16 at the February earnings report to today’s level, about 26% off the $335.18 52-week high, while the S&P 500 is up 11.85% YTD. This is a name-specific unwind.
Why Truist Is Sticking With a $356 Target
Sell-side coverage remains constructive. Of 34 analysts, 4 rate MCD Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 14 Hold, and 1 Sell.
Bartlett’s $356 Buy-rated target rests on four planks. First, the $5 Meal Deal extension and app-only offers pull traffic from regional QSR and casual dining. Second, digital monetization: MCD counts nearly 220 million 90-day active loyalty users and over $40 billion in trailing systemwide sales to that base, with app orders carrying higher tickets and lower labor overhead.
The third plank is international recovery from the Q2 1.5% International Operated Markets comp, with France stabilizing and Japan compounding via loyalty. The fourth is franchisee operating leverage. Kempczinski expects the U.S. to be “fully back to where we need to be in 2027”, with an Investor Day on September 23 in Chicago as the next catalyst.
The QSR peer group did not sell with McDonald’s. Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) trades near $135.75 versus a $173.79 target, implying about 28% upside. YUM is off 10.27% YTD, but Q2 was cleaner as Taco Bell posted 7% same-store sales growth. Coverage skews Buy with 2 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, and 15 Hold.
Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) trades near $73.29 against an $85.92 target, only about 17% upside. QSR is up 7.42% YTD, riding Burger King’s 8.5% U.S. Q2 comp. Ratings run 3 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 9 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell.
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) sits near $96.67 versus a $112.23 target, about 16% upside. SBUX is up 14.80% YTD after a 7.9% global comp in fiscal Q3, with coverage split 4 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 17 Hold, 1 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell.
Largest consensus upside belongs to YUM at 28%, with MCD close behind at 26%. Bartlett’s $356 on MCD is the biggest single-name gap on the board.
Two-Year Lows, a Dividend King, and a 29-Point YTD Gap
MCD currently trades at $248.48, with a 34-analyst average target of $312.84. Shares are off 17.11% YTD and 16.42% over one year, versus the S&P 500’s 11.85% YTD gain.
Valuation looks defensible: a trailing P/E of 20, forward P/E of 18, dividend yield of 2.9%, and free cash flow yield near 4.1%.
Bull Case and Bear Case for MCD
McDonald’s works here if U.S. execution issues are fixable within quarters, national value pricing regains awareness, and international markets accelerate off the 1.5% Q2 comp. That path leads to Bartlett’s $356, aided by franchisee alignment, loyalty compounding, and the September 23 Investor Day.
The bear case builds if the low-income consumer stays pressured, the under-$3 menu fails to reset traffic, and China plus France remain drags. Those risks turn a defensive Dividend King into a slow-bleed value trap.
The setup skews cautiously constructive. The dividend is bulletproof, the balance sheet supports buybacks, and the setup pays you to wait for U.S. execution to catch the international book. It may still take through 2027 before shares reach Bartlett’s $356.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
