Steve Weiss Dumped an Energy Stock That Tripled the S&P 500 Over a Decade
Steve Weiss called energy stocks a decade of disappointment, booked his gains in Valero, and walked away feeling disciplined. The scoreboard tells a more complicated story about the one refiner that left the entire sector in the dust.
Investment manager Steve Weiss told CNBC’s Halftime Report viewers on September 23 that he exited his entire position in Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO | VLO Price Prediction) after roughly a 35% gain in about a month, citing long-term skepticism about energy stocks. He also didn’t want to wear out his welcome. The Short Hills Capital Partners founder said “you got to book it when you can book it,” framing the tactical exit as prudent discipline for a commodity-linked name he said had underwhelmed as a group over the past decade.
The irony sits in the scoreboard. Valero is the one energy stock that ran away from the broader market over that exact window, and knowing when to leave a winner is its own discipline (we wrote a free handbook on riding a run and planning the exit here: Bubble Survivor’s Handbook).
Decade Scoreboard Undercuts the Sector Thesis
Over the trailing 10 years, VLO has returned 877.39%, versus 255.83% for the S&P 500 proxy SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) and just 177.32% for the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLE). Weiss’s broader sector critique holds up on the ETF math. XLE trailed SPY by nearly 80 percentage points. Yet Valero itself tripled the benchmark he was implicitly measuring energy against.
The near-term price action supports his timing instinct. VLO fell 6.12% over the past week and slipped 1.16% intraday on the day of his announcement, though shares remain up 130.8% YTD and 120.5% over the past year.
Insider Selling Adds a Corroborating Signal
Insiders are also trimming exposure. Valero EVP and COO Gary Simmons disposed of 4,000 shares of common stock on September 16, 2026, according to Form 4 filings. The selling is modest in size but lands with the stock trading near the top of its 52-week range of $155 to $419.04.
Fundamentals Are Still Firing
Valero’s Q2 2026 results, reported July 30, 2026, delivered adjusted EPS of $12.54 against a $10.13 estimate and revenue of $44.48 billion, up 48.8% year over year. Refining operating income reached $4.5 billion versus $1.3 billion a year earlier, and refining margin per barrel nearly doubled to $23.62 from $12.35. On the balance sheet, the company returned $2.6 billion to shareholders in the quarter alone. Full details are contained in the Q2 2026 earnings release filed with the SEC.
Valero CEO Lane Riggs told analysts “refining fundamentals remain supported by low global product inventory, limited excess refining capacity, and resilient demand for transportation fuels.” COO Gary Simmons went further, arguing management holds “a much more bullish view of a future mid-cycle than what you would calculate using historic margins.”
At $375 per share, VLO trades at roughly 15.7 times trailing earnings and 10.2x forward, with an average analyst price target of $355.47, placing sell-side consensus already below the current quote.
Diesel Export Ban Is the Live Swing Factor
The remaining wild card is Washington. As the CNBC Halftime panel discussed, the diesel export ban has emerged as a critical policy risk, with the energy secretary opposing it and Goldman Sachs warning that implementation would cause “some pain at the pump” by bundling diesel and gasoline supply impacts. EIA data show US distillate exports remain historically elevated, leaving Valero’s Gulf Coast asset base heavily exposed to that channel. A second panelist added that “the nature of which positioning has gravitated towards the refiners is becoming somewhat exhausted,” suggesting hedge fund crowding may cap near-term upside.
What to Watch Next
Valero’s Q3 2026 results will test the mid-cycle bull case. Management guided Gulf Coast throughput of 1.78 to 1.83 million barrels per day and renewable diesel sales of approximately 335 million gallons. Ceasing operations at the Benicia refinery by the end of April 2026 removes California regulatory drag while shrinking capacity. Investors weighing whether to follow Weiss out the door should track three things: diesel export policy signals, crack spread normalization, and whether refiner positioning does in fact roll over.
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Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
