The Real AI Opportunity at Marvell Is Just Starting to Emerge
Marvell just secured a deal its CEO called a monster number, analysts have zero sell ratings on the stock, and the biggest growth catalyst has barely shown up in the financials yet.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) is $311.69 over the next 12 months. Shares traded at $266.89 at noon, which puts the upside at about 16.8%. The model rates the stock a buy with high confidence.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $266.89 |
| Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. | $311.69 |
| Upside/Downside | 16.8% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Today’s 3.05% drop puts the stock below the model’s $275.28 reference price, so shares trade below the level the model used. I have high confidence in the call because growth is speeding up, management keeps raising guidance, and analysts are mostly bullish.
In my view, the biggest piece of the AI story, custom silicon at hyperscale, has only just started to show up in reported results.
A 214% Rally Built on Data Center Momentum
Marvell is up 214.58% year to date and 13.59% over the past month. It has slipped 1.96% over the past week. Shares sit about 19% below the 52-week high of $329.73 and far above the low of $70.62.
Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue came in at $2.739 billion, up 36.55% and ahead of the $2.707 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 beat the $0.9289 estimate. Data Center revenue grew 46% to $2.1715 billion, or 79% of sales.
Guidance for the third quarter calls for $3.150 billion in revenue and $1.10 in non-GAAP EPS. After the company’s October 6 Investor Day, Morningstar raised its valuation, citing bullish long-term guidance (Morningstar).
Why Bulls See $356 and Beyond
Management expects fiscal 2027 revenue of roughly $12 billion, up about 45%. For fiscal 2028, the outlook is roughly 50% total growth, with custom revenue expected to more than double.
The expanded agreement with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) unit Google includes a warrant for Google to buy up to 7% of Marvell’s shares.
On the call, the deal was described as $120 billion in cumulative revenue over six years if every milestone is met. CEO Matt Murphy called it “just a monster number.”
Analyst coverage includes 8 Strong Buys, 32 Buys, and zero Sells, with a consensus target of $337.99. The bull case is $356.05.
Risks That Could Pull Shares Toward $237
A handful of hyperscalers drive most of Marvell’s revenue, and any of them could decide to design more chips in-house. Other risks include tight wafer supply, China trade restrictions, and $4.963 billion in long-term debt. Gross margin also slid to 58.9%.
Bulls would answer that the dip comes from the lower-margin custom ramp, while operating margin rose 180 basis points to 36.6%. Shares have also been volatile, falling from $278.67 in mid-June to $188.30 a month later. The bear case is $237.25.
Marvell Trades at a Steep Premium to Broadcom and NVIDIA
| Company | Forward P/E | Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|---|
| Marvell | 62x | 36.5% |
| Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) | 19x | 85.5% |
| NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) | 25x | 105.9% |
Broadcom is Marvell’s most direct rival in custom AI accelerators and Ethernet switching. It is growing faster today at a far lower multiple, and its consensus target is $531.31.
NVIDIA works with Marvell on NVLink Fusion and sets the pace for AI compute. It also trades at a lower multiple while posting higher growth.
Against these two, our target looks full (we reverse-engineered what the biggest tech winners looked like early in a free Next Nvidia Playbook). It still holds up because Marvell’s growth is accelerating toward a 75% year-over-year Data Center increase next quarter, while its peers are growing off much larger bases.
Accelerating Custom Revenue Drives Our Bullish Target
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $311.69 comes with a buy rating and high confidence. For me, the deciding factor is custom silicon: management says that business will more than double in fiscal 2028 and grow even faster in fiscal 2029.
The bull case improves if custom ramps and scale-up optics stay on schedule. It weakens if margins keep shrinking without matching revenue upside. On balance, the growth outlook justifies the premium.
Marvell Price Prediction 2026-2030
Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Marvell could trade, assuming current growth trends and market conditions hold.
| Year | Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $277.98 |
| 2027 | $312.55 |
| 2028 | $341.18 |
| 2029 | $368.38 |
| 2030 | $383.48 |
Marvell would need to keep executing on its hyperscaler roadmap for these projections to hold. Reaching every milestone in the Google agreement could drove results well above these figures. A move by customers to bring chip design in-house might drag results lower.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
