IonQ Lost 30% Of Its Value Over 12 Months: Two Wall Street Ratings Agencies Say Share Prices Will More Than Double Over The Next 12 Months
Two Wall Street firms see IonQ shares more than doubling from here, yet the stock sits nearly 50% below its peak with losses widening and shareholders already diluted. Here is what separates the bull case from wishful thinking.
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IonQ (NYSE:IONQ | IONQ Price Prediction) currently trades at $43.87. Wall Street’s average price target is $66.63, which implies 51.9% upside.
IonQ is a pure-play quantum computing company. It sells trapped-ion systems along with quantum networking, sensing and security products. It just posted its fifth consecutive record quarter and raised full-year revenue guidance to $280 million to $290 million. Two sell-side firms, B. Riley Securities and Rosenblatt Securities, share a Street-high target of $100.00. That target implies 127.9% upside.
That gap suggests either the market or the analysts have misjudged IonQ.
Losses, Dilution and a Sector Selloff Cut IonQ Nearly in Half From Its High
Losses caused the decline. Q2 revenue reached $80.05M, up 286.8%. Yet adjusted EBITDA loss came to $120.3 million and GAAP net loss hit $1.87B. A $1.6B warrant fair-value charge caused most of that loss; stock-based compensation added $141.8M. A $2B equity offering diluted existing shareholders.
Shares are down 28.67% over 12 months and sit 48.2% below the 52-week high of $84.64.
The sector sold off widely. IonQ’s fiscal 2027 consensus EPS estimate fell from -$2.3667 90 days ago to -$3.3720.
Eleven of 13 Analysts Still Rate IonQ a Buy
Of the 13 analysts tracked, one rates IonQ a Strong Buy, 10 rate it a Buy, two rate it a Hold and none rate it a Sell. The latest move was a new initiation: Bank of America started covering the stock with a Buy rating.
Three drivers support the $100 bull case: trapped-ion technology scaling toward error-corrected systems, bookings from multi-year quantum-as-a-service contracts with hyperscalers and defense agencies, and a path to $1B in annualized revenue run-rates. Consensus fiscal 2027 revenue is about $811 million.
Backlog supports this. Remaining performance obligations reached $485 million, up from $122 million a year earlier. Catalysts include commissioning 256-qubit systems in the first half of next year and moving toward 10,000 qubits in 2027. The Anduril and Sandia agreements are not included in backlog or guidance, so revenue from them would be upside.
Price targets carry no guarantee. Most of the thesis depends on hardware milestones arriving in 2027.
Rigetti and D-Wave Fell Harder, and Their Targets Imply More Upside
All three quantum stocks sold off together. IonQ held up best.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) is down 47.16% over one year. It trades at $15.74 against a $28.52 target, which implies 81.2% upside. Nine of 13 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy and four say Hold. Q2 revenue was only $5.14 million.
D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) is down 32.94% over one year. At $16.57 against a $34.65 target, it implies 109.1% upside. Sixteen of 17 analysts rate it a Buy or better, even though Q2 revenue of $3.08 million missed estimates.
D-Wave has the most analyst-implied upside. IonQ has the least, but it generates far more revenue than either peer, so its upside rests on reported sales.
IonQ Trailed the S&P 500 by a Wide Margin Over the Past Year
IonQ trades at $43.87. The average target from 13 analysts is $66.63, or 51.9% upside. Over the past year, the stock fell 28.67% while the S&P 500 gained 14.46%. Year to date, IonQ is down 2.23% and the index is up 11.81%.
Short-term momentum is stronger. IonQ rose 11.6% over the past month while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. Beta is 3.295, the 52-week low is $25.89, and shares trade at 72 times trailing sales.
IonQ’s Sales Growth Faces a Test From Widening Losses
This outlook improves if the 256-qubit systems launch on schedule, combined guidance with SkyWater Technology (NASDAQ:SKYT) shows revenue growing faster than costs, and backlog turns to sales. That path supports the $66.63 consensus target.
The bear case improves if adjusted EBITDA losses grow, more equity raises dilute shareholders, or acquisition integration stalls. At 72 times sales, execution slips leave little margin.
IonQ is the only company in this group with real revenue scale, making its smaller upside the most credible. The $100 target needs everything right. The consensus target needs steady execution.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
