Live Live update #15

Wall Street Sees 30% Upside as Nike Falls Below $35

From live coverage: Live: Will Nike Crush Q1 Earnings Tonight After a 2% Intraday Pop?
NKE
Nike

Valuation · as of Oct 1


$35.15-0.7%Target $45.63 · +29.8%
52-wk low $35.1652-wk high $74.51

Trailing P/E
17.1×
Forward P/E
20.9×
Price/Sales
1.1×
EV/EBITDA
12.1×
Price/Book
3.6×
Market cap $53.2B · Revenue -1.1% YoY
1 Strong buy10 Buy25 Hold1 Sell2 Strong sell

At $35.15, Nike is sitting right at its 52-week low of $35.16 and nearly 53% below the $74.51 high, with revenue down 1.1% year over year. Trailing 17x against a forward 21x says the market expects earnings to shrink before they recover, yet the $45.63 consensus target implies about 30% upside, and 25 of 39 analysts still sit on hold.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Nike Q1 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Nike’s Q1 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Tune in to the earnings call at 5 PM EST for more updates.

Nike's Technical Setup After Falling Through 52-Week Low

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Technical setup

4:37pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Thu, Oct 1
  • R2$44.89+27.7%
  • R1$36.85+4.8%
  • Now$35.15
50-day avg
$39.11-10.1% below
200-day avg
$48.89-28.1% below
52-week range
$35.16 – $76.97

At $35.15 the stock has already slipped through its 52-week low of $35.16, leaving open space below the price after guidance came in well below Street estimates. Any bounce has to clear $36.85 first, and the 50-day average at $39.11 and 200-day at $48.89 sit far above, so reclaiming the low is the only near-term test that matters.

Jim Cramer on X: “Nike inventories are down!”

Thomas Richmond
Jim Cramer
@jimcramer

4:19pm ET

Cramer's read on Nike's first-quarter results lands on the one line that decides whether the turnaround is real: cleaner inventory means less discounting and better margins ahead.

I will say this: Nike inventories are down!

  • Replies31
  • Reposts1
  • Likes68

Nike Insiders Loaded Up on 3 Million Shares Before Earnings.

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Insider activity — last 90 days

4:20pm ET

Bought
3.3M shares19 buys
Sold
$1.9M22 sales · 2.9M shares
Buys 53% of shares traded

  • Jul 30KNIGHT, TRAVIS ADirectorBuy2.9M sh
  • Sep 1HILL, ELLIOTTDirector, PRESIDENT & CEOBuy108.4K sh
  • Sep 1DENTON, DAVID MEVP: CFOBuy71.2K sh
  • Sep 1ALAGIRISAMY, VENKATESHEVP: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICERBuy37.2K sh
  • Sep 1HEINLE, TREASUREEVP: CHIEF PEOPLE OFFICERBuy34.1K sh

Nike insiders bought 3.26 million shares across 19 transactions in the past 90 days, led by director Travis Knight's 2,850,717-share purchase on July 30 and a September 1 cluster that included CEO Elliott Hill (108,400 shares) and CFO David Denton (71,234). The 22 sells, totaling about $1.9 million, are routine plan and tax-withholding activity.

Nike’s Guidance Sends Stock Tumbling 5%

Thomas Richmond

Nike’s Q1 numbers were mixed, but the outlook is much harder to ignore. Management expects fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35, well below the $1.65 analysts expected, while revenue is expected to decline by a high-single-digit percentage.

That helps explain why the stock is selling off despite Nike beating Q1 EPS estimates and gross margin expectations.

Additionally, Greater China revenue fell 22% year over year to $1.18 billion, missing analysts’ $1.3 billion estimate. Nike Direct also fell 8% and digital sales dropped 13%, showing the weakness goes beyond a single market.

North America was the bright spot, growing 2%, but it wasn’t enough to keep total revenue from falling 4% year-over-year.

Nike Q1 Earnings Are Out - Stock Falls 5% on Results

Thomas Richmond

Nike just reported fiscal Q1 earnings, with shares initially down 5% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $11.21 billion vs. $11.32 billion expected
  • EPS: $0.48 vs. $0.44 expected

Quick Read:

  • Nike beat EPS expectations by 9%, but revenue missed estimates by about 1%.
  • The top line remains under pressure, with revenue down 4% year over year despite rising 2% sequentially.
  • Shares sinking 5% suggests investors are looking past the EPS beat and focusing on Nike’s continued sales weakness.

Nike's Bull vs Bear Case at 52-Week Lows

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Thesis check

4:05pm ET

weakening$35.15 -0.7% today
“Nike's turnaround restores growth and margins as inventory clears”

Bull case
  • Cash rebuilt to $7.56 billion and net debt trimmed to $3.47 billion in Q2 FY2026, the healthiest reading in a year
  • Current ratio of 1.96x funds the inventory cleanup without outside help
  • Polymarket traders price roughly 77% odds of clearing the $0.45 EPS bar
  • Sentiment is already washed out, with wallstreetbets debating a fall to $20
Bear case
  • Management guided Q1 revenue down a low to mid single digit percentage
  • Last quarter's 49.2% gross margin leaned on a roughly 900 basis point tariff refund
  • Underlying gross margin slid from 45.4% to about 40% over five quarters
  • Shares at $35.15, within a whisker of the $35.16 52-week low

Strip out the tariff refund, and Nike's core business is still eroding, which is why the stock sits at its 52-week low into tonight. A clean gross margin above 42% with a firmer recovery timeline from management would push this back to intact.

Nike Has $3.5 Billion in Net Debt. Here’s Why That Matters Tonight

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Balance sheet · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:15pm ET

$3.47BNet debt
Cash $7.56B · Debt $11.03B · Equity $14.87B · Current ratio 1.96×

Nike rebuilt its cash position to $7.6 billion in Q2 FY2026 and trimmed net debt back to $3.5 billion, the healthiest reading in a year, so tonight's turnaround update is being judged against a balance sheet that can fund inventory cleanup on its own terms. The current ratio at 1.96 is the tightest in the eight quarters shown, worth keeping an eye on if management leans harder on markdowns.

Net cash by quarter

$-3.2B$-3.9B$-4.6B

Nike’s Margins Exploded Higher Last Quarter But There’s a Catch

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:10pm ET

Gross
49.2%+8.9pp YoY
Operating
12.0%+9.1pp YoY
Net
9.7%+7.8pp YoY

Last quarter’s 49.2% gross margin looks great, but it got a massive boost from a tariff refund. Before that, Nike’s gross margin had fallen from 45.4% to roughly 40% over five quarters. Tonight we’ll get a much cleaner look at whether margins are actually improving, especially with operating margin clearing 10% just once since mid-2024.

Operating margin by quarter

12.7%7.45%2.17%

Wall Street Is Buying Nike Ahead of Q1 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Tracked 13F positioning

3:05pm ET

$426Macross 8 tracked filers
5 added · 1 trimmed · 1 exited

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC

    $167M+12%

  • Millennium Management LLC

    $135M+2.9%

  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc

    $60M+12%

  • Tudor Investment Corp

    $28M—

  • Gotham Asset Management LLC

    $20M+5.7%

  • Two Sigma Investments LLC

    $13M+1.6%

  • Balyasny Asset Management LP

    $3M-0.7%

  • Brevan Howard

    $516K—

+ 1 more tracked holder

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Among the eight filers we track, five added to Nike as of the June 30 disclosure, with Renaissance Technologies lifting its share count nearly 12% to a $167 million position at the top of the list. Those filings are roughly 45 days stale and predate tonight's earnings report, covering only positioning as of quarter end, which closed with one exit, one trimmer, and no fresh entries.

Retail Traders Are Asking Whether Nike Will Fall to $20

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Reddit hype check

3:00pm ET

25Board activity / 100Bearish lean · 24
23 qualified mentions · past 7 days

Retail chatter into tonight's earnings report is thin and sour, with the most-engaged wallstreetbets thread of the week asking whether Nike can fall to $20. The boards are pricing downside, sentiment that sets up a low bar for any upside surprise.

Board activity — past 7 days

50.028.57.04


r/wallstreetbets
Could Nike fall to $20 ?
138 upvotes · 109 comments

Nike Trades at 52-Week Low Ahead of Q1 Earnings

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Technical setup

2:55pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Thu, Oct 1
  • R2$44.89+24.4%
  • R1$36.85+2.1%
  • Now$36.08
  • S1$35.35-2.0%
50-day avg
$39.11-7.7% below
200-day avg
$48.89-26.2% below
52-week range
$35.16 – $76.97

Nike goes into tonight's report sitting at $36.08, less than a dollar above its 52-week low of $35.16 and with support at $35.35 as the only thing underneath. Resistance at $36.85 is the first test on a positive reaction, though the 50-day at $39.11 and the 200-day at $48.89 show how far the stock sits below trend. A break under $35.35 puts it at levels not seen in the past year.

Traders See a 77% Chance Nike Beats Q1 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Prediction markets

2:50pm ET

Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?
77%Yes
Polymarket · $2k traded · resolves Thu, Oct 1

Traders on Polymarket are leaning heavily toward Nike clearing the $0.45 GAAP EPS bar tonight, pricing roughly three-in-four odds of a beat even with management guiding revenue down low to mid single digits.

Nike Traders Brace for Chaos With 146% Implied Volatility

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Options positioning

2:45pm ET

Put/call 0.89Balanced
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
145.9%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 2chain as of Wed, Sep 30

Options expiring Thursday are priced for a violent reaction, with at-the-money implied volatility at 145.9% on the $35.50 strike. The 0.89 put/call ratio and the stack of puts at $35 and $36 show traders paying up for downside protection into the report, though crowded hedges can just as easily fuel a squeeze with a strong quarter.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $34

    4.3k / 180

  • $34.5

    901 / 194

  • $35

    8.6k / 1.4k

  • $35.5

    3.1k / 971

  • $36

    7.5k / 4.8k

  • $36.5

    3k / 3.3k

Analysts' Top Questions Ahead of Nike's Q1 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
NKE
Nike

Call preview · Q1 2027

2:35pm ET

Thu, Oct 1
Earnings call · after close

Turnaround progress has come up on every one of the last three calls, alongside the Greater China reset and the Sportswear and Classics franchise cleanup, so the after-hours move likely hinges on whether management puts a firmer timeline on the recovery rather than on the headline numbers. The gross margin question feeds straight into the other standing thread: the path back to double-digit EBIT margins.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q2 26Q3 26Q4 26Q1 27
  • Turnaround progress & timeline
  • Greater China reset & strategy
  • Sportswear & Classics franchise reset
  • North America growth & wholesale
  • Path to double-digit EBIT margins
  • Innovation pipeline & product scaling

Stay On This Page to Receive Live Nike Q1 Earnings Updates

Thomas Richmond

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect Nike to release Q1 earnings shortly after 4:15 p.m. ET.

Nike's Q1 Earnings Are Tonight. Here’s What Investors Need to Watch

Thomas Richmond

Nike heads into fiscal Q1 earnings with little room for error. Management guided for revenue to fall by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage, while Wall Street expects roughly $11.3 billion in sales and $0.44 per share in earnings.

Last quarter, Nike’s Q4 gross margin jumped 890 basis points to 49.2%, but almost all of that improvement came from a roughly 900-basis-point tariff refund benefit.

This quarter should give investors a much clearer view of whether the company’s underlying turnaround is actually improving profitability.

Greater China revenue fell sharply last quarter, and current estimates call for another 12.6% decline in Q1.

With Nike shares already reflecting considerable skepticism about the turnaround, clean margin improvement and signs of stabilization in China could be among the most important factors to watch tonight, besides the EPS number.

View the full live blog (18 updates) →