$10,000 Put Into September’s Best-Performing Large Cap Is Worth a Lot More Now. Is There Room Left in October?
SanDisk spun off as an afterthought into a commoditized market and somehow became one of the best-performing large caps of the year. The real question is whether the conditions keeping its stock airborne survive into October.
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When SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) split from Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) in February 2025, it was a pure-play NAND flash maker walking into an oversupplied, commoditized market. That market turned fast, and the spinoff afterthought has evolved into an AI memory powerhouse.
CEO David Goeckeler directed the company toward data center and AI customers and launched a New Business Model built on multi-year commitments. Datacenter went from about 12% of bits a year earlier to 38% exiting fiscal 2026. Full-year revenue hit $20.248 billion, up 175.3%, with non-GAAP EPS of $70.88 and free cash flow of $11.494 billion. Long-term debt is now zero.
Management says “demand from our customers is growing faster than our supply” and expects bits to stay on allocation beyond calendar 2027.
Up 3,558% Since the Spinoff, Still Climbing in September
SanDisk has traded only since early 2025, so no five-year or 10-year window exists. Here is how a $10,000 investment did across the available periods:
September to Date
- Initial Investment: $10,000
- Share Price: $1,536.87 to $1,777.80
- Total Return: 15.68%
- S&P 500 (same period): 1.26%
One-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $10,000
- Share Price: $94.29 to $1,777.80
- Total Return: 1,785.46%
- S&P 500 (same period): 17.22%
Since Spinoff
- Initial Investment: $10,000
- Share Price: $48.60 on Feb. 24, 2025, to $1,777.80
- Total Return: 3,558.02%
- S&P 500 (year to date, closest available): 13.11%, versus SanDisk’s 648.93%
September’s fuel was the August report: EPS of $39.25 beat the $33.28 consensus, and guidance called for $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion in revenue. Shares fell 6.81% that day, then gained 38.09% over 30 days. SanDisk also appeared in a Sept. 4 S&P Dow Jones Indices rebalancing release, though its exact role is unspecified.
I Think There’s Room Left, With One Condition
SanDisk trades at about 24x trailing earnings and 8x forward earnings. The average analyst target is $2,136.54.
I’d put new money into SanDisk today if NAND stays supply-constrained and its multi-year contracts, expected to cover more than 50% of fiscal 2027 bits, hold margins near management’s 80% target. A $15.5 billion buyback authorization adds support.
I would directed clear if hyperscalers slow their AI spending. NAND is historically cyclical, and management admits misreading demand is “kind of tragic. We saw that in ’23.”
I lean bullish. A single-digit forward multiple tells me the market already doubts these earnings last, which leaves upside if contracts deliver. A hyperscaler CapEx cut is the risk that breaks my view.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
