Uranium Prices Just Broke a 19-Year Record, but Nuclear Stocks Are Collapsing Anyway
Uranium just shattered a price record that stood for nearly two decades, yet every major nuclear stock is bleeding out. Something in the math does not add up, and the reason exposes a fault line running through the entire sector.
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$96 Per Pound: A Uranium Price Record Set in 2007 Just Fell
The long-term uranium price reached $96 per pound, an all-time record that passes the $95/lb high from mid-2007, according to ZeroHedge’s report on uranium term prices. The term price sets the multiyear contracts utilities sign to fuel their reactors, and it is up roughly 12% year to date. That should be good news for Cameco (NYSE:CCJ | CCJ Price Prediction), a leading uranium producer. Instead, Cameco shares closed at $85.18 on October 2, down 6.9% for 2026.
Why a Higher Term Price Matters for Cameco’s Revenue
Cameco’s own filings show how much a higher term price can help it. In its Q1 FY2026 report, released May 5, 2026, Cameco said the average long-term price had risen to US$91.50/lb, close to its highest level since 2012. The spot price had rose 34% year over year to US$88.49/lb. Market-related pricing now accounts for 69% of revenue versus 51% a year ago, so more of Cameco’s sales follow the market price. Adjusted net earnings rose to $145.59 million from $50.20 million.
The record came with very little buying behind it. TD Cowen said it formed on thin volume. Term contracting fell about 15% year over year to just over 38 million pounds as of August 31. Utilities are seeing “sticker shock on pricing and seem reluctant to contract in any meaningful way.” Cameco’s realized price shows how slowly its contract book catches up: $65.45/lb in Q1, compared with spot near $88.
Cameco and Nuclear Stocks Slid as Uranium Hit a Record
Cameco fell 11.62% over the past month, from $96.38 to $85.18. It also fell Friday and underperformed the market. Its 52-week high is $135.24.
The rest of the sector has done worse:
- Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) is down 20.38% year to date, even after selling uranium at a weighted average of $93.13/lb. The stock reversed course after an earnings spike.
- Denison Mines (NYSEAMERICAN:DNN) is down 20.19% over the past month.
- Oklo (NYSE:OKLO) is down 50.01% year to date.
- NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) is down 45.31% year to date.
- Leading uranium and nuclear ETF VanEck Uranium Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:NLR) is down 16.4% year to date. Cameco was its second-largest holding as of Oct. 1.
Four Risks Weighing on Cameco Stock
Valuation. Cameco trades at a trailing P/E of 149 and a forward P/E of 52. Those multiples assume higher prices turn into higher profits quickly. The Q1 report shows that conversion lagging. Revenue came in at $606.30 million, missing the $815.13 million consensus by 25.62%.
Operations. Cameco has highlighted possible U.S. tariffs on uranium and an extended Q3 shutdown at its Key Lake mill. It also has $559 million held in a transfer pricing dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency. Full-year guidance assumes deliveries of 29 million to 32 million pounds at $85.00 to $89.00/lb, which leaves little room for mill problems.
Demand timing. Goldman Sachs noted that “inbounds have been extremely light on the nuclear front.” Its argument is that hyperscalers need megawatts in 2027 rather than gigawatts in 2037. A record price that utilities are reluctant to pay does little for contract books (we picked five ways to play the nuclear restart, utilities and fuel included, in a free report here).
Analyst expectations. Wall Street remains positive, with 8 Strong Buy and 11 Buy ratings and a $126.75 price target. The stock has moved the other way.
The Contract Signal That Could Unlock the Uranium Record
Supply is tightening. Kazatomprom pushed back startup of its sulfuric acid plant by 6 to 12 months, and Russia banned sulfuric acid exports through year-end. Cameco’s chief executive said “ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in fossil fuel supply chains are reinforcing the importance of secure, reliable and resilient baseload power.” For investors with a longer horizon, the number to track next is term contracting volume. That will show whether $96 becomes the price on signed contracts or stays a record few utilities pay. Until utilities sign, the record has done little for Cameco shareholders.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
