D-Wave Quantum Crashed in 2026: One Wall Street Pro Predicts 170% Returns by 2027
D-Wave quantum stock sits nearly 40% in the red while one Wall Street analyst holds a price target that would triple your money. The catch is a single quarter that could either validate the bull case or expose a very…
D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) is trading at $15.79. The consensus price target sits at $34.65, which means about 119% upside.
D-Wave is the only quantum computing company pursuing both annealing and gate-model systems. It runs production workloads for customers such as AT&T (NYSE:T | T Price Prediction) and Optum. In January 2026, it acquired Quantum Circuits to add gate-model capability.
The most bullish call on the stock comes from Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake, who holds the Street-high $43.00 target. That target means about 172% upside from here.
A Revenue Miss and Rising Costs Pushed D-Wave Down Nearly 40%
Second-quarter revenue of $3.08M came in 23.63% below the $4.03M consensus and was about flat year over year. GAAP EPS of -$0.13 missed the -$0.0914 estimate.
Operating expenses nearly doubled to $54.98M, and adjusted EBITDA loss grew 85% to $37.1M. Cash and investments fell to $546.2M from $819.3M, with more than 90% of that drop due to the about $250 million cash payment for Quantum Circuits. Share count grew from 266.6M to 358.7M during fiscal 2025.
The stock is down 39.62% year to date and 66% below its 52-week high of $46.75. Other quantum stocks fell too, but D-Wave has the worst year-to-date loss in the group.
Rosenblatt’s $43 Call Rests on Annealing Already Earning Revenue
Of the 17 analysts tracked, 1 rates it Strong Buy, 15 rate it Buy and 1 rates it Hold. None rate it Sell. Rosenblatt reiterated its Buy rating despite the miss.
Rosenblatt’s view: D-Wave leads in commercial annealing systems that solve optimization problems today. Leap should generate high-margin recurring cloud revenue as customers move from pilot programs into production. Hybrid quantum-classical solvers deliver value now, so customers don’t wait for fault-tolerant machines.
First-half bookings reached $35.5M versus $2.9M a year earlier. Remaining performance obligations rose 668% to $40.7M, with about 57% recognized within 12 months. D-Wave has six customer applications in production.
Management expects third-quarter revenue to be “up modestly” and fourth-quarter revenue to be “up significantly,” with two annealing systems likely shipping in the fourth quarter. D-Wave doesn’t expect significant gate-model cloud revenue until 2032. Price targets are not guarantees, and this one depends on annealing doing the heavy work for years.
Quantum Stocks Fell Together, and D-Wave Fell Hardest
Every stock in the peer group sold off. D-Wave’s decline was sharper than its peers’.
IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) is down 3.52% year to date at $43.33. Its average target of $66.63 means about 54% upside. Analysts rate it 1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 2 Hold.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) is down 31.51% year to date at $15.17. Its target of $28.52 means about 88% upside. Ratings: 1 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 4 Hold.
Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ:QUBT) is down 23.39% year to date at $7.86. Its target of $18.67 means about 138% upside. Six analysts cover it (4 Buy, 2 Hold).
Quantum Computing Inc. has the largest consensus upside on paper. D-Wave ranks second and has the widest and most bullish analyst coverage in the group.
D-Wave Is Down 39% While the S&P 500 Rises
D-Wave trades at $15.79, less than halfway to its $34.65 consensus target. The stock is down 39.62% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up 14.25%.
Shares have fallen 4.76% over the past month and trade below the 50-day average of $18.14 and 200-day average of $20.80. On trailing revenue of $12.425M, the stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 481.83.
D-Wave’s Fourth-Quarter Deliveries Will Test the 172% Call
The case for the stock gets stronger if both annealing systems ship in the fourth quarter, the backlog turns into revenue on schedule and Leap’s production customers like Optum and AT&T expand their work. That path could close much of the gap to the consensus target.
The bear case gains weight if fourth-quarter deliveries slip into 2027, spending keeps outpacing revenue and D-Wave issues more shares to fund a gate-model program that won’t produce significant revenue until 2032. In that case, today’s low price would be a value trap.
The production customers and backlog are real, and analysts are almost unanimously positive. The fourth quarter has to deliver before Rosenblatt’s $43.00 target looks realistic.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
