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Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW | PANW Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q4 2026 results today at 4:05 PM ET. Shares have climbed 89.18% year to date, but the stock is down 5.67% intraday.
Momentum Meets a Premium Setup
Q3 delivered revenue of $3.002 billion, up 31.15% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.85, beating by 6.65% and extending the streak to five quarters.
NGS ARR reached $8.13 billion, up 60%, while trailing 12-month adjusted free cash flow margin ran at 38.5%, a 430 basis point improvement. CEO Nikesh Arora called Q3 “a record quarter,” citing accelerating organic bookings as customers race to secure AI deployments. Shares now trade at $359.66 against a forward P/E of 93, so high expectations are already priced in.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q4 FY26 Estimate |
YoY Change |
FY26 Estimate |
FY27 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$3.35B |
+32% |
$11.42B |
$13.84B |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) |
$0.9777 |
+10% |
$3.7754 |
$1.9418 |
Revisions skew sharply positive, with 40 upward Q4 EPS revisions in the trailing 30 days against one downward. FY27 EPS, however, has been reset from $2.33 ninety days ago to $1.94 as acquisition dilution flows through models.
What I’m Watching Tonight: NGS ARR, AI Security Traction, and FY27 Framing
Tonight, I’ll be watching whether NGS ARR lands inside guidance, and how much came from organic growth versus acquisitions. Q3 organic NGS ARR grew 28% against the 60% reported figure, so the split shapes the growth narrative.
I’ll be tracking Prisma AIRS after customer count expanded to more than 300 in Q3 from 100 at the end of Q2, with $100 million ARR in sight. XIM ended Q3 at $600 million ARR across 740 customers, validating the AI security thesis.
Analysts will also focus on CyberArk profitability convergence, which management said is running 3-6 months ahead of the original 12-18 month timeline. The path to 40% adjusted FCF margin by FY28 hinges on that work.
Management also flagged FY27 segment disclosures across Network Security, Cortex, and Identity. Initial FY27 framing will reset the debate. Rising memory and storage costs, plus $517 million in Q3 share-based compensation, are also items to watch.
Earnings History Table
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
Day-of Move |
1-Week Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q3 FY26 |
+6.65% |
-5.64% |
-6.14% |
+20.19% |
| Q2 FY26 |
+9.70% |
-6.82% |
-4.93% |
+6.96% |
| Q1 FY26 |
+4.35% |
-7.42% |
+2.73% |
+1.65% |
| Q4 FY25 |
+6.74% |
+3.06% |
+1.47% |
+14.67% |
On average, shares moved -1.14% one week after earnings over the past year.
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