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That wraps up our initial coverage of Palo Alto’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!
Palo Alto Networks just reported earnings with shares initially up 6% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
Guidance:
Quick Read:
Consensus for Q4 sits at $0.9777 EPS on $3.35 billion in revenue, essentially matching management’s own range. The real event is the first FY27 outlook.
Wall Street currently models $13.84 billion in FY27 revenue, with EPS estimates trimmed to $1.9418 from $2.3309 ninety days ago on 7 downward revisions.
CEO Nikesh Arora has beaten and raised for five straight quarters, so a conservative guide is baked in.
Bullish scenario: FY27 revenue above $14B, NGS ARR growth above 40%, and FCF margin tracking toward the 40% fiscal 2028 target early.
Bearish scenario: revenue below $13.5B, Q1 EPS under $0.4375 consensus, or FCF margin stalling at 37.5%. With shares already off 5.79% intraday, the guide dictates the next leg.
Palo Alto Networks reports Q4 FY26 earnings after the bell, with Wall Street focused on $3.35 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS guidance of $0.96-$0.98.
The bigger number may be Next-Generation Security ARR. Management guided for $8.90 billion to $8.95 billion, representing 59-60% growth, with investors watching closely for CyberArk’s contribution.
Expectations are high. Palo Alto shares have roughly doubled year to date as investors bet on platformization, AI security demand, and a longer-term path toward 40% free cash flow margins. Yet each of the company’s last three earnings beats was followed by a negative day-of stock reaction.
A clean beat and strong FY27 outlook could validate the rally. Any softness in NGS ARR or cautious forward guidance could quickly put the stock’s premium valuation under pressure.
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW | PANW Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q4 2026 results today at 4:05 PM ET. Shares have climbed 89.18% year to date, but the stock is down 5.67% intraday.
Q3 delivered revenue of $3.002 billion, up 31.15% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.85, beating by 6.65% and extending the streak to five quarters.
NGS ARR reached $8.13 billion, up 60%, while trailing 12-month adjusted free cash flow margin ran at 38.5%, a 430 basis point improvement. CEO Nikesh Arora called Q3 “a record quarter,” citing accelerating organic bookings as customers race to secure AI deployments. Shares now trade at $359.66 against a forward P/E of 93, so high expectations are already priced in.
| Metric | Q4 FY26 Estimate | YoY Change | FY26 Estimate | FY27 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.35B | +32% | $11.42B | $13.84B |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.9777 | +10% | $3.7754 | $1.9418 |
Revisions skew sharply positive, with 40 upward Q4 EPS revisions in the trailing 30 days against one downward. FY27 EPS, however, has been reset from $2.33 ninety days ago to $1.94 as acquisition dilution flows through models.
Tonight, I’ll be watching whether NGS ARR lands inside guidance, and how much came from organic growth versus acquisitions. Q3 organic NGS ARR grew 28% against the 60% reported figure, so the split shapes the growth narrative.
I’ll be tracking Prisma AIRS after customer count expanded to more than 300 in Q3 from 100 at the end of Q2, with $100 million ARR in sight. XIM ended Q3 at $600 million ARR across 740 customers, validating the AI security thesis.
Analysts will also focus on CyberArk profitability convergence, which management said is running 3-6 months ahead of the original 12-18 month timeline. The path to 40% adjusted FCF margin by FY28 hinges on that work.
Management also flagged FY27 segment disclosures across Network Security, Cortex, and Identity. Initial FY27 framing will reset the debate. Rising memory and storage costs, plus $517 million in Q3 share-based compensation, are also items to watch.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-of Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 | +6.65% | -5.64% | -6.14% | +20.19% |
| Q2 FY26 | +9.70% | -6.82% | -4.93% | +6.96% |
| Q1 FY26 | +4.35% | -7.42% | +2.73% | +1.65% |
| Q4 FY25 | +6.74% | +3.06% | +1.47% | +14.67% |
On average, shares moved -1.14% one week after earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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