Lyft Lost About 25% Of Its Value Last Year: This Bank Says Positive Factors Will Result in 85% Returns Ahead
Lyft keeps posting record quarters while its stock slides toward multi-year lows, and one analyst sees a path to returns that would make most investors do a double take.
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Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT | LYFT Price Prediction) is priced at $16.22, while the average analyst price target stands at $19.52. This points to implied upside of 20.3%.
Lyft runs the second-largest US ride-hail network and owns Freenow by Lyft in Europe. It has also signed autonomous vehicle partnerships with Waymo and Tensor. One bank is far more bullish than the consensus. TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge holds the Street-high $30.00 target and a Buy rating, which means about 85% upside. That is a big number for a company that keeps posting record quarters while its stock goes the other way.
Record Quarters, Shrinking Stock: How Lyft Fell 36% From Its High
Spending is the biggest reason the stock fell. In the first quarter, Lyft reported EPS of $0.04 against a $0.07 estimate, missing expectations as sales and marketing costs rose to $272.9 million from $182.0 million. The second quarter brought another narrow miss: EPS came in at $0.13 versus a $0.14 estimate, even though revenue of $1.84 billion beat consensus.
Shares sit about 36% below the 52-week high of $25.54. Over the past year the stock is down 17.75%.
Much of the weakness hit the whole sector. Rideshare and delivery names all de-rated together as investors wondered whether robotaxis will eventually make human-driver networks less valuable. Lyft’s beta of 1.96 amplified that move.
TD Cowen’s $30 Case Leans on Insurance Reform and Margin Gains
TD Cowen’s thesis relies on three drivers. The first is insurance reform progress, particularly in California, which should lower structural costs. The second is market share stabilizing against Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER). The third is margin expansion through cost control. Insurance reform matters because Lyft’s insurance reserves grew to $2.07 billion from $1.70 billion.
The operating data supports the second and third pillars. Second-quarter gross bookings rose 23% to $5.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 37% to $177.2 million. About 30% of North American rides now come through partners such as Chase, DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH), and United Airlines. Third-quarter guidance calls for adjusted EBITDA of $183 million to $203 million. Lyft has also bought back $400 million of stock this year and authorized another $1 billion.
The AV upside is still distant. Lyft runs Waymo fleet operations in Nashville, but CFO Erin Brewer called the income statement impact “frankly pretty de minimis.”
Most of Wall Street is less convinced. Of 45 analysts, 4 rate Lyft a Strong Buy, 9 a Buy, 31 a Hold, and 1 a Strong Sell. Revisions are leaning positive, though. Over the past 30 days, 2027 EPS estimates saw 22 upward revisions against 10 downward. RBC Capital kept its Buy rating after the second-quarter report.
Entire Gig Economy Sold Off, and Lyft Gets the Smallest Consensus Upside
Lyft has company in this selloff. Its peers fell even more over the past year.
Uber is down 25.51% over the past year to $71.51. Against an average target of $100.86, that means 41% upside. Analysts are heavily bullish, with 9 Strong Buys, 33 Buys, 8 Holds, and 1 Sell. That is about double Lyft’s consensus upside.
DoorDash is down 28.66% over the past year to $196.50. Its average target of $257.25 means 30.9% upside. It has 9 Strong Buys, 27 Buys, 10 Holds, and no Sells.
On consensus numbers, Uber offers the most upside in the group. Lyft only takes the lead if you use TD Cowen’s Street-high target. Price targets are opinions, so treat these figures as one input among several.
Lyft Trails the S&P 500 Badly Despite a Sharp One-Month Bounce
At $16.22, Lyft has 20.3% implied upside to the $19.52 consensus target, a figure built from 45 analyst ratings. Year to date, the stock is down 16.26%, while the S&P 500 is up 14.17%.
Momentum is improving. Lyft gained 8.86% over the past month, compared with 2.12% for the index. The stock trades at a forward P/E of about 9. The trailing P/E is misleadingly low because of a one-time tax benefit in 2025.
Cash Flow Makes Lyft Compelling, but Uber Still Sets the Ceiling
Lyft looks like a bargain if insurance reform comes through, partnerships keep growing gross bookings faster than 15%, and EBITDA margin keeps climbing past 3.2% of bookings. It becomes a value trap if marketing spend has to keep rising just to hold share against a much larger Uber, or if robotaxis weaken the value of a human-driver network before Lyft’s AV partnerships produce revenue.
I lean bullish. Lyft has posted four consecutive quarters of more than $1 billion in trailing free cash flow, and it is using that cash to buy back stock at single-digit forward earnings. That limits the downside. Reaching $30 requires near-perfect execution, though. The consensus target is the more realistic marker, and the earnings reports to keep an eye on are the ones that show whether margins expand as forecast.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
