USA Rare Earth Drops 6% With Milestone-Based Government Funding Still Ahead of It; MP Materials Falls 6%, Critical Metals Holds Steady

Rare earth stocks are falling as a group, and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is among the worst hit while its milestone-based government funding is still ahead of it. USA Rare Earth stock is at $11.86, down 6% in recent trading. That loss adds to a steep slide and leaves USA Rare Earth stock down 30% over the past month.

Meanwhile, MP Materials (NYSE:MP) stock is falling alongside its smaller rival, down 6% to $43.45. By contrast, Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) stock is holding up far better at $6.82 with just a 0.5% dip. Such a split leaves CRML stock as the steadiest of the three rare earth names.

Sector-wide pressure shows up in the fund data as well. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is at $58.15, down 5%. Broad-market trading is calm by comparison, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) at $777.95, down 0.1%.

Selling Concentrates in Rare Earth Names

USA Rare Earth hasn’t issued any announcement explaining the move. With the rare earth names and the sector ETF falling together while the S&P 500 fund sits close to unchanged, the selling is happening inside one group. MP Materials stock and USA Rare Earth stock are posting nearly identical losses, and both are steeper than the sector fund’s slide.

On the company’s August 10 results call, Chief Financial Officer Rob Steele described USA Rare Earth’s definitive agreements with the Department of Commerce as a milestone-based capital expenditure reimbursement program. Under that setup, the company gets reimbursed only after it reaches specific milestones. Steele said USA Rare Earth expected to apply for its first reimbursement distribution in the coming months, so the government money in the headline still lies ahead of the company.

Spending Runs Ahead of Revenue at USA Rare Earth

USA Rare Earth is building an integrated chain that runs from mining through processing to finished magnets. Its spending arrives years before the revenue that chain is meant to produce. MP Materials operates a producing mine at Mountain Pass. Its bull case is growing sales and a new aerospace and defense purchase deal, while the bear case is start-up costs from its magnet push. Critical Metals is a development-stage company with purchase term sheets for its Greenland project, but no operating revenue and substantial going concern doubt.

Covering the second quarter of 2026, USA Rare Earth reported revenue of roughly $6 million, capital expenditures of $66 million and cash of approximately $1.5 billion at period end. Set side by side, the spending exceeds the sales for the period, and that tension is central to the story.

The bearish case for USA Rare Earth starts with the structure itself, since reimbursement pays nothing until milestones are met. Round Top, the company’s main project, targets commercial operations in late 2028, and heavy spending against a small revenue base makes funding the central question.

On the bullish side, USA Rare Earth’s cash position is large, and the reimbursement structure ties public money to a supply chain the government wants built. A producer and a chain-builder falling by similar amounts in the same session shows the market marking the whole group lower, regardless of any one company’s progress.

What to Watch Next

What matters next for USA Rare Earth is whether its first reimbursement distribution is applied for and received. Traders may want to check for whether the company reports its first magnet sales, which would show the finished end of its chain producing revenue.

Each step would turn the funding in the headline from a promise into cash on the balance sheet. Until then, USAR stock investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest.

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