A Year Ago We Said the SMR Rally Was Just Heating Up. Oklo and NuScale Both Fell Sharply.
We called Oklo a buy and NuScale a strong buy when nuclear fever gripped the market, and the trade collapsed spectacularly. Here is what the bull case looks like after the wreckage, and whether anything has actually changed.
Small modular reactor (SMR) developers Oklo (NYSE:OKLO | OKLO Price Prediction) at $31.78 per share and NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) at $6.49 both face unresolved execution risk today. A year ago, 24/7 Wall St. called NuScale a strong buy and Oklo a buy on dips in “Nuclear Fever: Oklo and NuScale Soar, Is the SMR Rally Just Heating Up?” That call was wrong by a wide margin. Over the past year, Oklo fell 81.4% and NuScale fell 85.8%.
Both remain development-stage companies, with financials to match. Oklo has trailing revenue of $1.21 million. NuScale booked $75,000 last quarter. Neither sells commercial power. When the original piece ran, Oklo traded at $135.23 after a 537% year-to-date run, and NuScale traded at $46.77 after a 160% gain. 24/7 Wall St. projected 30% to 50% upside for NuScale and 50% to 100% upside for Oklo on dips.
Which Pieces of the SMR Thesis Survived the Year
The bullish thesis rested on three pillars:
- The U.S.-U.K. Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy
- The promise of NRC licensing timelines reduced from three to four years to roughly two
- AI data center power demand
That demand held up: data centers are the largest driver of U.S. electricity demand, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The White House still targets 400 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050. The story the market priced was that faster permits meant near-term revenue. A year later, NuScale has no definitive TVA agreement, and Oklo has no commercial Aurora unit.
Billions in Cash and a Reactor at Criticality Revive the Bull Case
Oklo holds about $3 billion in cash and marketable securities. Its Groves isotope reactor reached first criticality a little over 11 months from the start of construction, and Aurora INL targets startup in 2028. NuScale holds $1.90 billion in cash and investments, while its partner ENTRA1 talks terms with TVA for up to 6 GW.
NuScale’s Certification Moat Failed to Protect Shareholders
NuScale owns the only NRC-certified SMR design, which was the core of the moat argument. The stock collapsed anyway. Revenue fell 99.1% once the FEED work by Fluor (NYSE:FLR) for RoPower ended. Weighted diluted shares jumped to 364.5 million from 133.4 million. Fluor left its stake, and class actions allege misstatements about ENTRA1’s nuclear experience. Certification without a definitive order produces zero revenue.
Oklo’s Original Caveat Still Governs the Stock
The original piece noted that Oklo was pre-revenue, burning cash, and valued on execution. That warning held up. Yet it never shifted the bullish framing, because the suggested buy zone below $100 still assumed years of flawless execution. Progress since then supports the long-term case. Rising costs moderate it: Oklo lifted 2026 capital spending guidance to $400 million to $500 million, and $1.9 billion of its cash came from at-the-market share sales.
Analyst Targets Imply Upside Neither Stock Has Earned
Oklo’s average target of $75.38 implies 137.2% upside across 23 analysts. NuScale’s $11.77 target implies 81.4% upside across 18 analysts. Remember that targets carry no guarantee.
Over the past year, the S&P 500 gained 17.3% while both stocks fell more than 80%. Year to date, Oklo is down 55.7% and NuScale 54.2%, against a 14.0% gain for the index.
Binding Contracts Must Replace Promises Before Either Stock Rerates
Oklo’s outlook remains balanced between progress and cost. Our team accepted a regulatory headline at a price that had already assumed years of flawless execution. Oklo’s outlook improves if Aurora INL passes DOE’s safety analysis and readiness review on schedule and its Idaho isotope lab books revenue early next year. Another spending increase or a slip past 2028 would weaken the outlook.
NuScale faces a similar balance of catalysts and risks. A signed TVA power agreement or a final notice to proceed in Romania would improve the outlook. Ongoing dilution without orders would weaken the outlook. Each quarter, track definitive contracts, cash burn against guidance, and share count.
The SMR trade gains substance when a reactor sells power under a binding contract, and until that happens both stocks remain development-stage claims on that future. For readers looking past the two most-watched names, we mapped five other ways to play the nuclear restart, utilities and fuel included, in a free report here.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
