Chevron’s Big Rally Couldn’t Erase a Decade of Underperformance
Chevron just posted one of its strongest runs in years, yet patient investors who held through every oil crash and geopolitical shock may be surprised by where they actually stand against the broader market.
The energy major’s stock has gained sharply over the past year, and the rally changes how its full decade looks. Put $1,000 into Chevron (NYSE:CVX | CVX Price Prediction) ten years ago, reinvest every dividend, and you’d now hold more than three times your money. Even so, you’d still trail the S&P 500.
Oil Crashes, Oil Spikes and a Hess-Sized Push for Scale
Chevron works across the whole energy chain. Upstream, it finds and produces oil and gas. Downstream, it refines, markets and makes chemicals. Results swing with crude prices. The 2020 COVID crash hit the whole industry hard, though Chevron kept paying its dividend. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 then brought a boom.
Chevron closed its Hess acquisition in 2025. That year production hit a record 3,723 MBOED, up 12%. In 2026, military action that began February 28 effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent averaged $117 per barrel in April. Second-quarter revenue rose 51.4% to $67.2B. Over the whole decade, the quarterly dividend climbed from $1.07 to $1.78.
Your $1,000 Became $3,276
Chevron’s figures use dividend-adjusted prices, so they assume all dividends were reinvested. The S&P 500 figures track SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) on price alone and leave out its dividends.
1-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $1,516
- Total Return: 51.61%
- S&P 500 (same period): $1,190 (19.01%)
5-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $2,462
- Total Return: 146.21%
- Annualized Return: 19.7%
- S&P 500 (same period): $1,786 (78.59%)
10-Year Return
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $3,276
- Total Return: 227.63%
- Annualized Return: 12.6%
- S&P 500 (same period): $3,647 (264.67%)
Timing drove almost everything here. The 5-year window starts in October 2021, just before the 2022 surge, and Chevron beat the index easily over that period. The 10-year holder sat through the 2020 collapse and still fell behind a benchmark that wasn’t even credited with its dividends. Reinvested payouts did much of the work. Without them, Chevron’s decade would look much weaker.
Why Chevron’s Dividend Case Matters Most Right Now
Chevron’s case today depends on income that holds up across the oil cycle. Investors focused on riding the current crude spike could face more risk.
Bull case: The CEO says Hess assets generate free cash flow “roughly double the incremental dividends.” A 20-year Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) power deal adds cash flow that doesn’t depend on commodity prices. Chevron also bases its 2030 targets on oil prices below current levels.
Bear case: Today’s earnings depend on a Hormuz disruption that won’t last forever. The stock trades at $217.22, right near its 52-week high of $217.78.
The income case looks stronger than the price-gain case. A decade of crashes and spikes still turned $1,000 into $3,276 for patient holders who reinvested. Energy majors reward holders who stay through a full cycle.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
